COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia: Impact of lockdown on infection dynamics

Salim, Naomie; Chan, Weng Howe; Mansor, Shuhaimi; Bazin, Nor Erne Nazira; Amaran, Safiya; Faudzi, Ahmad Athif Mohd; Zainal, Anazida; Huspi, Sharin Hazlin; Khoo, Eric Jiun Hooi; Shithil, Shaekh Mohammad

doi:10.1101/2020.04.08.20057463

Cited by 64 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 12 publications

(14 reference statements)

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“…Evidence that facemasks can protect against infections in the community is relatively scare[40][41][42], as acknowledged by contrasting views on medical facemasks by governments and public health experts[20]. An epidemic forecasting models was used by Salim, Naomie, et al to estimate the number of positive COVID-19 in Malaysia estimated that the peak will be on 19 April 2020 with an estimation of 5,637 positive cases[43], however 5,425 positive cases[44]were reported on the same date questioning the effectiveness of facemask in reducing infection . As evidence suggests COVID-19 could be transmitted through droplet[45,46], surgical masks may be ineffective for prevention as they generally do not form a tight seal against the face skin and hence are not endorsed to protect people from airborne infectious as the infection could happen through the mucous membranes of the eyes[47].Nonetheless , two community based retrospective case-control studies in Hong Kong and China during previous 2003 SARS-CoV-1 outbreak reported that use of medical grade facemasks (surgical masks in both studies) was associated with at least 60% lower odds of contracting SARS[48,49].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Prevalence and Acceptance of Face Mask Practice among Individuals Visiting Hospital during COVID-19 Pandemic: An Observational Study

Gunasekaran¹,

Gunasekaran²,

Gunasekaran³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: The COVID-19 transmission has been established to occur through respiratory droplets from coughing and sneezing. Health agencies have strongly recommended the use of facemask as a precaution from cross-transmission. Objective: This study investigated the prevalence of facemask use among visitors to the hospital. This study also investigated the demographic factors contributing to unacceptable facemask practice. Setting: This prospective observational study was done among hospital visitors to a district specialist hospital during COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Methods: Individuals entering through dedicated entry point were observed for the type, category and practice of wearing personal protective equipment. Inclusion criteria for this study were any individual's ≥ 2 years old entering the treatment facility from selected entry points. Patients were categorized into two groups of acceptable and unacceptable facemask practice. The Pearson chi-square was used to test for differences in investigated variables in the univariate setting and Binary Logistic regression model was used in the multivariate setting. Main Outcome Measure: Prevalence, acceptance practice and odds ratio of unacceptance of facemask use. Results: Among 1652 individuals included in the final analysis, 1574 (96.9%) was observed wearing facemask with 1269 (72.0%) of individuals worn medical-grade facemask. However, among them, only 1397 (88.8%) individuals' facemask practice was acceptable while the reaming 177 (11.2) individuals were perceived with unacceptable facemask practice. Male individuals, Malay ethnic and high risk age group are 1.47 times (Odds Ratio: OR=1.47; 95% CI, 1.06-2.06; p=.023), 2.18 times (OR=2.18; 95% CI, 1.55-3.08; p<.001) and 1.99 times (OR=2.18; 95% CI, 1.42 - 2.77; p<.001) more likely to exhibit unacceptable facemask practice respectively. Conclusion: Extensive use of facemasks coupled with environmental hygiene measures is a public health strategy which can help to mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic impact. However, a targeted comprehensive strategy to improve compliance to proper facemask practice among the high-risk population is needed to achieve maximal protective benefit.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Prevalence and Acceptance of Face Mask Practice among Individuals Visiting Hospital during COVID-19 Pandemic: An Observational Study

Gunasekaran¹,

Gunasekaran²,

Gunasekaran³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Second, literature has suggested that the doubling time of seven days is a signal for public health intervention to be done swiftly to reduce the transmission. 23 Due to the data-driven nature of this analysis, the forecasting of new cases should be carefully interpreted. This is based on new cases but not based on case date of onset, which can tell much more about the dynamics of the disease.…”

Section: -Day Forecast Using Expert Modelermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…4 The effect of the MCO has shown a reducing trend in incidence cases. 5 This has prompted the government to loosen the MCO before eventually lifting the order. 4 Many studies have used mathematical modelling to predict the dynamic of this pandemic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Malaysia COVID-19 Incidence based on Movement Control Order using ARIMA and Expert Modeler

Ma¹,

Za²,

Ar³

2020

imjm

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INTRODUCTION: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a novel pandemic that affects every other country in the world. Various countries have adopted control measures involving restriction of movement. Several studies have used mathematical modelling to predict the dynamic of this pandemic. Forecasting techniques can be used to predict the incidence cases for the short term. The study aims to forecast the COVID-19 incidence using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using publicly available data, we performed a forecast of Malaysia COVID-19 new cases using Expert Modeler Method in SPSS and ARIMA model in R to predict COVID-19 cases in Malaysia. We compare 3 different time frames based on different Movement Control Order (MCO) period. We compare the model fit and prediction across models. RESULTS: All models show static cases for each MCO 7-day prediction. For prediction until 12 May, the third MCO time frame shows the best model fit for both techniques. Both software shows a stationary trend of cases of below 100. CONCLUSION: These MCO models have shown to stabilize the rate of new cases. Further sub analysis and quality of data is needed to improve the accuracy of the model.

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“…Such explosive COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia has called for pragmatic preventive measures to be implemented, including intensive case diagnosis, precise tracking, and compulsory two-week quarantine. Therefore, the Malaysian government has declared the enforcement of the Movement Control Order (MCO) as the strategy of flattening the pandemic curve [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Movement Control Order (MCO) due to Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) on Food Waste Generation: A Case Study in Klang Valley, Malaysia

et al. 2020

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The outbreak of a neurological disorder was first discovered as a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China. The infection spread rapidly in China and throughout the world, including Malaysia. Malaysia recorded its initial case on 25 January 2020 with intensifying numbers since March 2020. Due to this uncertain circumstance, Malaysia has introduced the Movement Control Order (MCO) with the main aim of isolating the source of the COVID-19 outbreak, which was effective from 18 March 2020. The restriction has observed fewer vehicles on the road with industrial and commercial activities being suspended. The objective of the study is to quantify the effects of MCO to food waste generation in town and district areas of Klang Valley, Malaysia. Food waste generation data was derived from the Project Delivery Department, KDEB Waste Management on a daily basis before (19 February–17 March 2020) and during the MCO (18 March–14 April 2020) at 12 local authorities in Selangor, Malaysia. The data was obtained with the limitation of assumption that there is no waste compositional analysis to be conducted in 2020. Despite the stay-at-home order, food waste data showed a descriptive reduction of up to 15.1% during the MCO. Statistical analysis of food waste generation from one-way variance has shown that municipal and district local authorities recorded a significant reduction (p < 0.50) during the MCO. The food waste reduction during the MCO will deliver as the evidence-based results to push the need for policies in Malaysia as per the goals outlined in Sustainable Development Goals of global food loss and waste.

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COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia: Impact of lockdown on infection dynamics

Cited by 64 publications

References 12 publications

Prevalence and Acceptance of Face Mask Practice among Individuals Visiting Hospital during COVID-19 Pandemic: An Observational Study

Prevalence and Acceptance of Face Mask Practice among Individuals Visiting Hospital during COVID-19 Pandemic: An Observational Study

Forecasting Malaysia COVID-19 Incidence based on Movement Control Order using ARIMA and Expert Modeler

Impact of Movement Control Order (MCO) due to Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) on Food Waste Generation: A Case Study in Klang Valley, Malaysia

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