COVID-19 containment: China provides important lessons for global response

Zhang, Shuxian; Wang, Zezhou; Chang, Ruijie; Wang, Huwen; Xu, Chen; Yu, Xiaoyue; Tsamlag, Lhakpa; Dong, Yinqiao; Wang, Hui; Cai, Yong

doi:10.1007/s11684-020-0766-9

Cited by 144 publications

(144 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The pattern of virus spread was found to be approximately exponential, at least during the early stages of virus spread [6,7], and importantly, the basic reproductive ratio of the virus has been estimated [8,9,10,11]. The implementation of social distancing measures are expected to have a significant impact on the virus spread kinetics [5], which has been observed in some Asian countries, such as China [12]. While the effect of containment efforts have been very pronounced in these countries, they might be more subtle in other countries across the globe, especially during the initial phase following their implementation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns of the COVID19 pandemic spread around the world: exponential vs power laws

Komarova

Schang

Wodarz

2020

Preprint

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We have analyzed the COVID19 epidemic data of more than 174 countries (excluding China) in the period between January 22 and March 28, 2020. We found that some countries (such as the US, the UK, and Canada) follow an exponential epidemic growth, while others (like Italy and several other European countries) show a power law like growth. At the same time, regardless of the best fitting law, most countries can be shown to follow a trajectory similar to that of Italy, but with varying degrees of delay. We found that countries with "younger" epidemics tend to exhibit more exponential like behavior, while countries that are closer behind Italy tend to follow a power law growth. We hypothesize that there is a universal growth pattern of this infection that starts off as exponential and subsequently becomes more power law like. Although it cannot be excluded that this growth pattern is a consequence of social distancing measures, an alternative explanation is that it is an intrinsic epidemic growth law, dictated by a spatially distributed community structure, where the growth in individual highly mixed communities is exponential but the longer term, local geographical spread (in the absence of global mixing) results in a power-law. This is supported by computer simulations of a metapopulation model that gives rise to predictions about the growth dynamics that are consistent with correlations found in the epidemiological data. Therefore, seeing a deviation from straight exponential growth may not be a consequence of working nonpharmaceutical interventions (except for, perhaps, restricting the air travel). Instead, this is a normal course of raging infection spread. On the practical side, this cautions us against overly optimistic interpretations of the countries epidemic development and emphasizes the need to continue improving the compliance with social distancing behavior recommendations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns of the COVID19 pandemic spread around the world: exponential vs power laws

Komarova

Schang

Wodarz

2020

Preprint

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“…By quick administrative action and raising awareness in individuals for social-distancing and stringent steps were taken to manage the spread of disease by cancelling thousands of activities of social gatherings in offices, classrooms, reception centers, bars, clubs and transport services, travel restrictions, contact tracing leaving the countries in complete lockdown (Cohen & Kupferschmidt, 2020). The remarkable interferences and ventures in public health to quarantine mass people have prevented this virus from spreading transmission between humans in China, Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea well to date, despite initial cases (Anderson et al, 2020;Zhang et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

<strong>Psychosocial, and Socio-Economic Crisis in Bangladesh due to COVID-19 Pandemic: A Perception-Based Assessment</strong>

Shammi¹,

Bodrud-Doza²,

Islam³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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The COVID-19 pandemic situation, disease intensity, weak healthcare facilities, unawareness, and misinformation led people to fear and anxiety in Bangladesh. This study intended to get peoples’ perception on psychosocial, socio-economic and environmental crisis amidst the pandemi. An online questionnaire was surveyed nationwide (respondents no.1066). Datasets were analyzed through the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), hierarchical Cluster Analysis (CA), Pearson’s correlation matrix (PCM), Linear regression analysis (LRA), and psychometric characteristics were included in the Classical Test Theory (CTT) analysis. There were good associations among the psychosocial, socio-economic and environmental parameters. A significant association between fear of COVID-19 with struggling healthcare system (p<0.05) was found. Also, negative association between fragile health system and government’s ability to deal with the pandemic (p<0.05) revealing poor governance. Again, a positive association of shutdown and social distancing with fear of losing life, and due to lack of health treatment (p<0.05) reveals that shut down hampers normal activities which may lead to mental and economic stress. However, a positive association of socio-economic impact of the shutdown with poor people’s suffering, the price hike of basic need, hamper of formal education (p<0.05) may lead to severe socio-economic and health crisis. There is a possibility of climate-induced disaster during/after the pandemic, which will create severe food insecurity (p<0.01). Daily wage earners and poors will suffer most by food and nutritional deficiency, and the country may face huge economic burden. Proper risk assessment and communications is needed to alleviate fear and anxiety. Thus, financial support and mental boosting is required.

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“…As reported in [11], containment measures taken in China proved to reduce human-to-human transmission successfully. However, most of the previous studies do not take into account the effective dynamicity of the containment, which is an extremely important parameter that directly affects the reproduction rate R t .…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 76%

When Robots contribute to eradicate the COVID-19 spread in a context of containment

Houacine

Drias

2020

Preprint

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In the era of autonomous robots, multi-targets search methods inspired researchers to develop adapted algorithms to robot constraints, and with the rising of Swarm Intelligence (SI) approaches, Swarm Robotics (SRs) became a very popular topic. In this paper, the problem of searching for an exponentially increasing number of targets in a complex and unknown environment is addressed. Our main objective is to propose a Robotic target search strategy based on the EHO (Elephants Herding Optimization) algorithm, namely Robotic-EHO (REHO). The main additions were the collision-free path planning strategy, the velocity limitation, and the extension to the multi-target version in discrete environments. The proposed method has been the subject of many experiments, emulating the search of infected individuals by COVID-19 in a context of containment within complex and unknown random environments, as well as in the real case study of USA. The particularity of these environments is their increasing targets' number and the dynamic Containment Rate (CR) that we propose. The experimental results show that REHO reacts much better in high Containment Rate, early start search mission, and where the robots' speed is higher than the virus spread speed.

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COVID-19 containment: China provides important lessons for global response

Cited by 144 publications

References 11 publications

Patterns of the COVID19 pandemic spread around the world: exponential vs power laws

Patterns of the COVID19 pandemic spread around the world: exponential vs power laws

<strong>Psychosocial, and Socio-Economic Crisis in Bangladesh due to COVID-19 Pandemic: A Perception-Based Assessment</strong>

When Robots contribute to eradicate the COVID-19 spread in a context of containment

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