COVID-19 as a game-changer? The impact of the pandemic on urban trajectories

Wolff, Manuel; Mykhnenko, Vlad

doi:10.1016/j.cities.2022.104162

Cited by 18 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Indeed, the COVID-19 pandemic exerted impacts of varying magnitudes on both urban shrinkage and resilience. The pandemic amplified the negative population growth in cities and impeded the process of urbanization [53], potentially exacerbating urban shrinkage. Cities exhibited diverse levels of resilience in response to the COVID-19 pandemic [54,55].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Shrinkage and Its Impact on Urban Resilience in Three Provinces of Northeast China

Wang

Zhang

et al. 2023

Land

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Currently, Chinese cities are experiencing both overall growth and localized shrinkage. Therefore, it becomes crucial to quantify urban shrinkage and explore the transformation and sustainable development of shrinking cities from the perspective of urban resilience. This study focuses on the three provinces of Northeast China, which are representative areas of urban shrinkage, as its research subjects. Employing the analytic hierarchy process, a comprehensive evaluation system for urban shrinkage is constructed based on three dimensions: population, economy, and space. Furthermore, urban resilience is scientifically measured from four aspects: economy, society, ecology, and infrastructure. The study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of urban shrinkage and urban resilience in the three northeastern provinces from 2012 to 2018. It also examines the impact of urban shrinkage on urban resilience through regression analysis and mediation models. The results indicate the following: (1) Half of the cities in the three northeastern provinces experienced shrinkage, although the extent of shrinkage decreased with the implementation of the Northeast China revitalization strategy. Population-related shrinkage was the most extensive and continued to expand, while economy-related shrinkage was the most severe, and space-related shrinkage was the least severe. (2) The resilience of shrinking cities was lower than the average level. Population-shrinking cities and economy-shrinking cities exhibited low levels of economic resilience, and the gap between them continued to widen. Space-shrinking cities generally had low infrastructure resilience. (3) The urban shrinkage index had a significant positive impact on the urban resilience index, mediated through intermediary variables, such as innovation capability and cultural development. Notably, both the direct and indirect effects of innovation capability were the greatest. Population-related shrinkage had the largest impact on urban resilience, while more intermediary variables of economy-related shrinkage passed the significance test.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Shrinkage and Its Impact on Urban Resilience in Three Provinces of Northeast China

Wang

Zhang

et al. 2023

Land

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“…Similar to what has been observed in previous studies [19,23,31], population decrease occurred parallel to economic decline, especially job-related out-migration. Out-migration further intensified the post-transition decline in fertility rate [58,90,91].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographic Aspects of Urban Shrinkage in Serbia: Trajectory, Variety, and Drivers of Shrinking Cities

Djurkin,

Antić,

Djordjević

2023

Sustainability

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Many European countries have faced the process of urban shrinkage in recent decades. Due to the various theoretical aspects of urban shrinkage, there are numerous approaches to the interpretation of this process. The most widely accepted of these refers to the demographic component as the starting point for defining this phenomenon, with the decline of the total population as the main indicator. The demographic shrinkage of cities in Serbia is a process that has been in place since the 1960s, with the dynamics of spatial-demographic and socioeconomic transformation during the post-socialist transition having exacerbated urban shrinkage. As a result, over 80% of urban settlements are affected by it. This paper identifies the trajectory and spatio-temporal patterns of the intensity and dynamics of urban shrinkage for the period from 1961 to 2022. The aim of this work is to show the diversity of shrinking cities and to explore the driving forces behind this process in Serbia. In this study, we conducted an analysis of population trends in 167 urban settlements in Serbia. Further analysis included the identification of contrasting spatio-temporal and demographic dynamic patterns characterized by either natural losses or out-migration. Due to the complex urban trajectories, a typology was created that distinguishes four different types of shrinking cities: continuously shrinking cities, episodically shrinking cities, recently shrinking cities, and resurgent cities. The results are important to achieving a better understanding of how patterns of local population trends change over time and space. The result will thus be a step towards explaining the main demographic factors causing population change and inter- and intra-regional differences between shrinking cities in Serbia, as well as towards examining urban renewal opportunities in the future.

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“…A clear example of differing rural–urban dynamics in times crises comes from migration data. Whereas rural regions have typically suffered from depopulation and associated shrinkage of their local economies that have been reinforced by economic slowdowns (Makkonen et al, 2022), a side effect of the pandemic was a ‘rural revival’ driven by out-migration from urban areas (Wolff and Mykhnenko, 2023). This was due to the higher initial numbers of COVID-19 infections in urban areas (Cuadros et al, 2021) and the subsequent (temporary) shift in migration patterns towards rural rather than urban locations during the pandemic (González-Leonardo et al, 2022).…”

Section: Business Resilience and Firm Survival In Times Of Crisismentioning

confidence: 99%

Resilience of rural businesses in times of crisis: Firm survival during the COVID-19 pandemic in Finland

Mitze,

Makkonen

2024

The International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Innovation

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Little is known about the geography of firm survival during COVID-19. We investigated the effect heterogeneity of the pandemic itself and of business support funding by the Finnish government with respect to rural and urban business closures. To do so, we utilised regional data on firm survival, detailed business support funding data and a rural–urban typology for Finland. Results from panel regressions showed that the pandemic had an overall negative impact on businesses in terms of an increased closure rate of about 20–30% during the period 2020q2–2022q4, which was generally higher in urban than rural areas. While the bulk of business support funding from the Finnish government during the pandemic went to urban businesses, COVID-19 funding mitigated the effects of the pandemic on business closures equally across the different rural–urban categories. Counterfactual simulations show that the average closure rate would have been about 10–12% higher during the pandemic if no business support funding schemes would have been implemented.

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COVID-19 as a game-changer? The impact of the pandemic on urban trajectories

Cited by 18 publications

References 41 publications

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Shrinkage and Its Impact on Urban Resilience in Three Provinces of Northeast China

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Shrinkage and Its Impact on Urban Resilience in Three Provinces of Northeast China

Demographic Aspects of Urban Shrinkage in Serbia: Trajectory, Variety, and Drivers of Shrinking Cities

Resilience of rural businesses in times of crisis: Firm survival during the COVID-19 pandemic in Finland

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