Uncertainties run deep during a crisis. Yet, leaders will have to make critical decisions in the absence of information they would like to have. How do political leaders cope with this challenge? One way to deal with crisisinduced uncertainty is to base all decisions on a core principle or value. This is what we call a principled approach. The pragmatist approach offers an alternative: an experimental, trial-and-error strategy based on quick feedback. In this paper, we consider both approaches in light of the COVID-19 experience in four European countries. We conclude that the pragmatic approach may be superior, in theory, but is hard to effectuate in practice. We discuss implications for the practice of strategic crisis management. KEYWORDS Strategic crisis management; political leadership; COVID-19; pragmatism
Introduction: categorizing strategic approaches to crisis managementThe COVID-19 crisis has presented political leaders everywhere with extreme governance challenges. They had to contain a mysterious virus, with limited data, widely varying estimates, unexpected capacity shortfalls, and intense contestation about interventions whose intended and unintended consequences were unknown.The uncertainties ran deep. There was uncertainty with regard to the main channels of transmission, whether successful recovery would lead to immunity from future infections, if and how the virus might mutate. There was uncertainty about the number of people infected, the number of people who would require intensive care, the number of potential fatalities or the long-term effects of the virus on recovered patients ('long-COVID'), the available capacities in healthcare facilities, or the economic and social