COVID-19 and Seasonal Adjustment

Abstract

The purpose of the Working Papers is to disseminate the results of research conducted by CIRANO research members in order to solicit exchanges and comments. These reports are written in the style of scientific publications. The ideas and opinions expressed in these documents are solely those of the authors. Les cahiers de la série scientifique visent à rendre accessibles les résultats des recherches effectuées par des chercheurs membres du CIRANO afin de susciter échanges et commentaires. Ces cahiers sont rédigés dans le style des publications scientifiques et n'engagent que leurs auteurs. CIRANO is a private non-profit organization incorporated under the Quebec Companies Act. Its infrastructure and research activities are funded through fees paid by member organizations, an infrastructure grant from the government of Quebec, and grants and research mandates obtained by its research teams. Le CIRANO est un organisme sans but lucratif constitué en vertu de la Loi des compagnies du Québec. Le financement de son infrastructure et de ses activités de recherche provient des cotisations de ses organisations-membres, d'une subvention d'infrastructure du gouvernement du Québec, de même que des subventions et mandats obtenus par ses équipes de recherche. CIRANO Partners-Les partenaires du CIRANO Corporate Partners-Partenaires corporatifs Autorité des marchés financiers Bank of Canada Bell Canada BMO Financial Group Business Development Bank of Canada Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec

The Political Economy of the Next Pandemic

“…Indeed, revisions of early 'flash' estimates of economic activity will bring better coverage and understanding of the sectors and activities that expanded during lockdowns. On top of this standard seasonal adjustment breaks down during a pandemic (Abeln and Jacobs 2021). In the same vein, an evaluation would seem to be possible regarding an elimination strategy versus a mitigation/suppression strategy or for short (presumably stricter) lockdowns versus protracted (presumably more relaxed) lockdowns.…”