COVID-19 and Peace in Conflict-Affected Areas

Abstract

The relationship between COVID-19 and peace has been considered from a variety of perspectives. In addition, different empirical studies on the link between the pandemic and peace in conflict-affected areas exist. However, little work has been performed on examining these studies to highlight key findings on the theme of COVID-19 and peace in conflict-affected areas. A conflict-affected area is a country, or part of a country, where widespread violence or armed conflict was present when COVID-19 emerged in December 2019, or that was transitioning from recent armed conflict to peace by the time the disease arose. What do we know, so far, about how peace has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in conflict-affected areas? To address this question, this paper begins by recognizing the multidimensionality of peace and clarifying that the main aspects of peace in conflict-affected areas being considered in the article are relations between conflict parties, peace efforts, and peace processes. Afterwards, the paper discusses existing evidence regarding the impact of COVID-19 and state responses to it on these components of peace in conflict-affected areas. The conflict-affected areas considered include Afghanistan, Colombia, Iraq, Israel-Palestine, Libya, Myanmar, Nigeria, South Sudan, Syria, the Philippines, Yemen, and other zones. The central finding of the article is that the existing studies on COVID-19 and peace in conflict-affected areas present mixed findings. On the one hand, the virus generated opportunities for cooperation between conflict parties in some cases, such as in the West Bank and Gaza Strip of Israel-Palestine. However, on the other hand, it created conditions that enabled conflict and impeded peace efforts and processes in many or most conflict-affected areas. The paper explains that two factors that determined how the disease affected peace in conflict-affected and non-conflict-affected areas are the pre-COVID-19 political and socio-economic conditions in an area, and how state and non-state actors responded to the pandemic. The article closes with a summary of the discussion and identification of its major limitations.

Conflict, COVID‐19, and crisis response: shifting from ‘pivoting’ to preparedness

“…This paper bridges the literatures of peace and conflict studies and risk and crisis management to probe how seemingly singular threats or exogenous shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, affect the resources and attention directed towards peacebuilding and what, in turn, this reveals about crisis response and preparedness. It builds upon a growing number of studies investigating the relationship between armed conflict and COVID-19, including how the pandemic has impacted on conflict zones (Bloem and Salemi, 2020;Polo, 2020;Hilhorst and Mena, 2021;Ide, 2021;Mehrl and Thurner, 2021;Ossai, 2022), how state responses to the pandemic have affected security (Berman et al, 2020;Hilhorst and Mena, 2021;Mehrl and Thurner, 2021;Farzanegan and Gholipour, 2023), and how non-state armed groups have responded to the pandemic, from engaging in public health interventions (Breslawski, 2021) to exploiting the crisis for their own interests (Polo, 2020;Ide, 2021;Koehnlein and Koren, 2022). This paper contributes to this pool of literature by assessing how the pandemic has affected the resources and attention directed towards peacebuilding, and how, in turn, this may have impacted conflict dynamics.…”

“…Indicative of this is the many meetings cancelled and postponed by international leaders to de-escalate tensions in conflict-affected environments, from Ethiopia to Yemen, in the aftermath of the declaration of a pandemic (ICG, 2020). Recognising the myriad factors involved in the outbreak and escalation of hostilities (Ossai, 2022), many of the ceasefires that were brokered then quickly fell apart in the months after the declaration of the pandemic (PSRP, 2024), which may also indicate the consequences of a distracted international community. Research participants also expressed concern that this distraction can encourage conflict actors to utilise a distracted international community for their own strategic advantage; a distracted international community is less engaged in conflict monitoring and taking action in response to infractions (Bell, Epple, and Pospisil, 2020).…”

“…This exploitation fuels tensions, grievances, and insecurity. Elsewhere, COVID-19, combined with a lack of international attention, enabled non-state armed groups and violent extremists to exploit growing discontent, uncertainty, and economic vulnerability among people (Burchill, 2020;Koehnlein and Koren, 2022;Ossai, 2022).…”

Global conflict escalation during the pandemic, climate, and economic dilemmas: Healthcare sustainability challenges in conflict zones and elsewhere

“…As the world becomes more interconnected, the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic become more serious. Because of its negative economic implications, the pandemic may also spark and intensify armed conflict (Ide, 2021;Mehrl & Thurner, 2021;Ossai, 2022), or at least worsen already precarious situations by escalating grievances, increasing mistrust, discrimination, and perceptions of injustice among vulnerable population in war or conflict zones (Chen et al, 2020;Crow, 2020;Gover et al, 2020;ILO, 2020;McKay et al, 2021;Rubinson & Hitman, 2022). However, fuel crisis induced by Russian aggression in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, climate disaster, and the continued economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic are pushing approximately 345 million people around the globe into food insecurity (Georgieva et.…”

Global Health Issues With Conflict Escalation Among Pandemic, Climate, and Economic Crises

“…As the world becomes more interconnected, the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic become more serious. The pandemic has the potential to spark and intensify armed conflict due to its negative economic consequences (or, at the very least, worsen already precarious situations by escalating grievances, increasing mistrust, discrimination, and perceptions of injustice among vulnerable populations in war or conflict zones [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42]. However, the fuel crisis caused by Russian aggression in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, climate disaster, and the ongoing economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic is pushing 345 million people worldwide into food insecurity [43].…”