The COVID-19 pandemic has been a global economic as well as health shock. Policy makers have had to make invidious choices in very uncertain circumstances, balancing strict public health measures to slow the spread of the virus against the adverse health, educational, and economic consequences of these choices. Attention has therefore rightly focused on the immediate mental health consequences of the pandemic, both for the general population and for people with preexisting mental ill health, including impacts on rates of self-harm and completed suicide.Evidence from a growing number of longitudinal studies indicates many sustained adverse impacts on mental health, albeit their magnitude varies across populations and countries. For instance, longitudinal analysis of 15,000 UK adults reported significantly increased levels of mental health problems for all age groups and genders, not only immediately after initial lockdown, but also in the subsequent months when restrictions were eased [1]. Effects appear especially pronounced for people with existing mental health problems, young people, women, and older people [2].These adverse impacts on poor mental health did not always immediately translate into additional use of services. Early analyses suggest rates of hospital-presenting self-harm initially fell in countries hard hit during the first COVID wave, including England [3], France [4], and Spain [5]. Demand for mental health services is likely to have been suppressed, partially due to lockdown restrictions, as well as the understandable fear of contracting COVID in healthcare settings. In Ireland, for example, there is evidence that hospital presenting self-harm rates rose markedly after the initial fall at the beginning of the pandemic [6].Much more will be learnt as longer-term data on mental health become available, including for individuals who have been bereaved or are living with long-COVID. However, policy makers and service planners cannot wait for long term impacts to become apparent, they need to formulate policy now to deal with the ongoing impacts of the pandemic and its aftermath over the next few years. It is therefore imperative that the mental health community is effective in its communications on the likely sustained adverse impacts on mental health of the pandemic.To do this, we can draw on evidence from the past. Impacts on population mental health of previous economic shocks, including the 2008-2009 global economic crisis, have been analysed at length [7]. Most studies, across multiple countries, point to an association between economic shocks and enduring but time-delayed adverse impacts on population mental health, including suicidal behaviour. This is a critical message to convey to policy makers; even when the pandemic is fully contained there will be additional future demands on mental health services.What distinguishes the current situation from previous crises has been the enormous and rapid investment in social protection measures in Europe to maintain the incomes of millions of people...