COVID-19 and employment in Brazilian microregions: A spatial analysis

Abstract

The main goal of this paper is to analyze the Covid-19 effect on jobs, using Brazilian microregions data. The Covid-19 effect was disaggregated into exogenous (reduction in exports) and endogenous (increase in social distancing) variables, the coefficient was estimated by Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). Using this methodology we can control the extremum heterogeneity, estimating one coefficient for each microregion in the sample. The results revealed that exports did not have any effects on jobs. On the other hand, the social distancing presented negative effect on employment, besides, stronger effect was observed in the Brazilian Northeastern region.