Coupling the two-level programming and copula for optimizing energy-water nexus system management – A case study of Henan Province

Yu, Li; Li, Q.W.; Jin, Shu-Wei; Chen, Cheng; Li, Y.P.; Fan, Yurui; Zuo, Qiting

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124832

Cited by 28 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Therefore, the regulation of the human-water relationship in Henan Province was mainly focused on the above-mentioned aspects. After determining the above content, we adopt a step-by-step optimization method [53] to set different control scenarios (change the index value with a fixed step) within a reasonable range of indicators to achieve a dynamic evaluation of human-water harmony. After simulating through constant replacement of the control scenarios, and a control scenario that meets the target setting is finally found.…”

Section: Regulation Of Human-water Harmony Degree In Henan Provincementioning

confidence: 99%

A Harmony-Based Approach for Assessing and Regulating Human-Water Relationships: A Case Study of Henan Province in China

Zuo

Zhao

et al. 2020

Water

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The conflict of the human-water relationships (HWR) has further increased the water-related risks, such as water environment deterioration, water shortages, and even regional violent conflicts for obtaining usable water resources. Knowing how to evaluate and regulate the discordant HWR to form a balanced growth between sustainable socio-economy and water resources protection has become a critical issue in water resources management. The harmony theory method, which provides a new perspective for solving the conflict between humans and water, has been widely used in current studies. However, this method focuses less on the quantitative study of the balance status of HWR. This study proposes a harmony theory-based HWR evaluation method that contains a systematic process of harmony assessment, indicator identification, harmony balance constraints, and harmony regulation for assessing and regulating the discordant HWR. The Henan Province of China, which has a complicated HWR, was selected as a case study to apply and verify the approach proposed in this study. The results indicated that (1) Henan Province showed a poor harmony status. The human–water harmony degree of 18 distinctions in the province varied from 0.41 to 0.76, showing an increasing trend from 2006 to 2018, indicating that the HWR was gradually improving in recent years. (2) The human–water harmony degree showed that HWR in the southwest part of Henan Province, with less human activities, was better than that in its northeast part, which had faster social development. Sanmenxia City, located in the west part of the province, had the highest human–water harmony degree because of the recent water control projects implemented in the city, indicating that human production measures could effectively help improve HWR. (3) At present, Henan Province has serious discordant indicators in these three aspects (water system health, humanistic system development, and human-water system coordination), which proves that it is still facing pressure from both socio-economy sustainable development and water resources protection. Our results provide insight into water resources management in Henan Province and other similar regions.

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Section: Regulation Of Human-water Harmony Degree In Henan Provincementioning

confidence: 99%

A Harmony-Based Approach for Assessing and Regulating Human-Water Relationships: A Case Study of Henan Province in China

Zuo

Zhao

et al. 2020

Water

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“…The P values of probability distribution functions of energy loads were all >.05 (eg, the P values of electricity loads under S3 in L, M, and H would be .154, .362, and .326, respectively), indicating Normal distribution could fit well for the probability distributions of them by using Anderson-Darling test. 40,41 Figure 2 shows the probability distribution of the average energy load under different demand levels. The probability distribution of the energy loads was assumed to be a normal distribution.…”

Section: Assumption and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

An inexact optimization model for distributed multi‐energy systems management in sustainable airports

Jin

2021

Int J Energy Res

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This paper proposes a fuzzy chance-constrained fractional programming (FCFP) method for planning distributed multi-energy systems (DMES). FCFP can deal with uncertainties expressed as fuzzy information, probability distributions, and multiple objectives. The FCFP-DMES model was applied to a real airport in a case study, and a series of scenarios were selected to examine the effects of the uncertainty on the energy supply and technology selection. Additionally, a comparison related to conventional energy system (CES) and DMES are discussed from energy consumption, economic, and environmental aspects. The results revealed the following: the combined cooling, heat, and power would serve as a primary distributed energy resource providing heating, cooling, and electricity in different seasons, accounting for approximately 40% of the total; among different alternative technologies, heating supplied by gas-fired boiler and thermal storage would serve as auxiliary heaters to cover 6.6% and 15.2% of the heating load, respectively, under high-level demand; although the DMES cannot bring cost-cutting, it has better environmental performance and a peak shaving function. Compared with the DMES, the CES would almost double the electricity purchasing cost (reaching $9.56 million), and an additional 136.24 MW of electricity would be needed, which would result in 127.5 tons/year of pollutant emissions. The findings of this study indicate that the FCFP-DMES model can provide a comprehensive and systematic strategy considering the multi-energy, multi-technology, and multi-uncertainty within the DMES.

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“…CVaR is conditional value at risk, it is a better risk measurement technology than value at risk (VaR) proposed by rockafeuar and uryasev in 1997, which means the average loss value of a portfolio when the loss of the portfolio exceeds a given var [25]- [29]. When using copula function to calculate CVaR of portfolio, the analytical formula of CVaR is not easy to solve.…”

Section: ) Risk Measurement Model Of Portfolio Based On Cvarmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Analysis Method of Cascade Plants Operation in Medium Term Based on Multi-Scale Market and Settlement Rules

Cheng

et al. 2020

IEEE Access

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Due to the distribution of runoff is uneven and uncertain in time and space, there are huge differences between the electricity markets dominated by hydropower and thermal power. Therefore, how to evaluate the risk of cascade plants participating in electricity market is an urgent problem to be solved. Based on the rules of the market in southwest China which hydropower plays a leading role, this paper proposes a risk analysis method for cascade hydropower to participate in market which is coupled with monthly market and day-ahead market: Copula-Monet Carlo is used to generate the combined scenario of daily runoff and daily clearing price, and the LINGO solver is used to calculate the generation income of all scenarios, and the corresponding conditional value-at-risk value(CVaR) of portfolio is obtained according to the confidence level. The method takes into account the uncertainty of runoff and electricity price in the meantime, as well as the settlement order and deviation assessment of each market in the settlement rules, and can directly solve the income and risk value. The process is simple and the physical meaning is clear. Using the actual data of a grid cascade hydropower participating in the electricity market as an example, the simulation analysis of the results shows that the proposed method can easily solve the portfolio risk value, and can more reasonably evaluate the risk value compared with the considering runoff and day-ahead market clearing prices separately. INDEX TERMS Cascade hydropower plants, portfolio, settlement rules, the risk assessment. I. INTRODUCTION

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Coupling the two-level programming and copula for optimizing energy-water nexus system management – A case study of Henan Province

Cited by 28 publications

References 44 publications

A Harmony-Based Approach for Assessing and Regulating Human-Water Relationships: A Case Study of Henan Province in China

A Harmony-Based Approach for Assessing and Regulating Human-Water Relationships: A Case Study of Henan Province in China

An inexact optimization model for distributed multi‐energy systems management in sustainable airports

Risk Analysis Method of Cascade Plants Operation in Medium Term Based on Multi-Scale Market and Settlement Rules

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