Coupling of Population and Settlement Change Trends in Traditional Rural Areas and Urban–rural Development Spatial Patterns: A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province, China

Abstract

Achieving the dual development of rural revitalization and urbanization is an important strategic goal of China’s current modernization. Rural population and settlements are the main components of the countryside in traditional agricultural areas, and play an important role in the development of the countryside itself in terms of urban and rural land use and in the formation of urban and rural development patterns. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal changes in rural populations and settlements at the township level, as well as the degree and type of coupled development. A framework for urban–rural development relationships based on different types of coupled development is proposed, and a model of urban–rural forces is constructed to derive the spatial pattern of urban–rural development at the township level that may be formed in the future. Our study shows that the rural population and settlements in the study area are characterized by significant spatial and temporal dynamics, indicating that traditional rural areas are in a process of rapid development and change. The results of the township-level coupling measurements present four types of development in terms of the spatial pattern of urban–rural development: A-type is most likely to produce new cities or satellite towns in the Jixi–Harbin–Qiqihar area in the future; B-type is the fastest dying area in the future, located in the Harbin and Qitaihe clusters, with a tendency to merge into Harbin; C-type is the area to be focused on in the future to attract population and strictly control the growth of the rural settlement area to avoid it turning into B-type; D-type may develop regional township centers in the future in the combined area of Jiamusi City, Suihua City and Mudanjiang City. The results of the study provide experience in realizing rural revitalization according to local conditions. The new spatial pattern of urban–rural development provides an important reference for formulating land use policies, optimizing urban–rural land allocation and realizing integrated urban–rural development strategies.