Coupling human dynamics with the physics of climate: a path towards Human Earth Systems Models

Abstract

Climate models are fundamental tools for the study of global change. They are used not only to test scientific hypotheses about the physical processes operating in planetary atmospheres, but also to advise society about expected changes in the climate of our planet. Current Earth System Models have begun to incorporate biological, chemical and geological processes (biogeochemical cycles, water chemistry) as feedback between the surface and the atmosphere. However, due to the many challenges involved, the integration of ‘human dynamics’ remains to be fully addressed. This perspective outlines a path towards two-way feedback Human Earth Systems Models. Major challenges in the plan include how to deal with the uncertainty inherent in human behavior and our interaction with the environment, the limits of predictability, and the scale of computational resources required to model human behavior with sufficient accuracy (i.e. close to observed measurements) and precision (i.e. with low dispersion). This paper provides a roadmap towards a tool that could revolutionize Earth system modeling by fully integrating the physical and human systems.