Coupling glacial lake impact, dam breach, and flood processes: A modeling perspective

Worni, Raphaël Philipp; Huggel, Christian; Clague, John J.; Schaub, Yvonne; Stoffel, Markus

doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.06.031

Cited by 146 publications

(134 citation statements)

References 83 publications

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“…35 km upstream of the heavily affected Himachal Pradesh District of Kinnaur (Gupta and Sah 2008;Ruiz-Villanueva et al 2016). Although GLOFs can travel exceptional distances ([100 km), 50 km provides here a reasonable extension given that flood hydrographs tend to attenuate rapidly and thereby damage potential reduces as flows propagate downstream (Worni et al 2014). In total, 120 glacial lakes were identified within the state watershed area, including lakes within the immediate upstream area of the Satluj basin in neighbouring China (Fig.…”

Section: Study Region and Baseline Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

et al. 2016

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Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a serious and potentially increasing threat to livelihoods and infrastructure in most high-mountain regions of the world. Here, we integrate modelling approaches that capture both current and future potential for GLOF triggering, quantification of affected downstream areas, and assessment of the underlying societal vulnerability to such climate-related disasters, to implement a first-order assessment of GLOF risk across the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (HP), Northern India. The assessment thereby considers both current glacial lakes and modelled future lakes that are expected to form as glaciers retreat. Current hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indices are combined to reveal several risk 'hotspots', illustrating that significant GLOF risk may in some instances occur far downstream from the glaciated headwaters where the threats originate. In particular, trans-national GLOFs originating in the upper Satluj River Basin (China) are a threat to downstream areas of eastern HP. For the future deglaciated scenario, a significant increase in GLOF hazard levels is projected across most administrative units, as lakes expand or form closer towards steep headwalls from which impacts of falling ice and rock may trigger outburst events. For example, in the central area of Kullu, a 7-fold increase in the probability of GLOF triggering and a 3-fold increase in the downstream area affected by potential GLOF paths can be anticipated, leading to an overall increase in the assigned GLOF hazard level from 'high' to 'very high'. In such instances, strengthening resilience and capacities to reduce the current GLOF risk will provide an important first step towards adapting to future challenges.

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Section: Study Region and Baseline Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

et al. 2016

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“…(1) large avalanche masses reaching nearby lakes, (2) wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes, (3) terminal moraine overtopping and/or moraine breaching, (4) flood propagation along downstream valleys, and (5) inundation of riverine populated areas (Worni et al, 2014;Westoby et al, 2014b). Few studies have attempted to simulate an entire GLOF hazard process chain in a single modeling environment, generally limiting the number of processes considered; e.g., Worni et al (2014) excluded avalanche simulations from their modeling framework.…”

Section: Introduction To Glacial Lake Hazard Process Chain Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introduction To Glacial Lake Hazard Process Chain Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Few studies have attempted to simulate an entire GLOF hazard process chain in a single modeling environment, generally limiting the number of processes considered; e.g., Worni et al (2014) excluded avalanche simulations from their modeling framework. Worni et al (2014) and Westoby et al (2014a) review typical modeling approaches for GLOFs that involve land or ice masses falling into glacial lakes. An approach that separately simulates individual processes predominates, where different processes are connected by using the results of one model as the input for the simulation of the next (e.g., Schneider et al, 2014;Westoby et al, 2014b;Worni et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introduction To Glacial Lake Hazard Process Chain Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Worni et al (2014) and Westoby et al (2014a) review typical modeling approaches for GLOFs that involve land or ice masses falling into glacial lakes. An approach that separately simulates individual processes predominates, where different processes are connected by using the results of one model as the input for the simulation of the next (e.g., Schneider et al, 2014;Westoby et al, 2014b;Worni et al, 2014). In this paper, this approach was used to produce simulations of each process in the chain from avalanche to inundation, ensuring that the processes were properly depicted.…”

Section: Introduction To Glacial Lake Hazard Process Chain Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

Somos‐Valenzuela

Chisolm

Rivas

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

101

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Abstract. One of the consequences of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, is the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) from lakes that have formed at the base of retreating glaciers. GLOFs are often triggered by avalanches falling into glacial lakes, initiating a chain of processes that may culminate in significant inundation and destruction downstream. This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha, the source of a previously catastrophic GLOF on 13 December 1941, killing about 1800 people in the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes simulated here includes (1) avalanches above the lake; (2) lake dynamics resulting from the avalanche impact, including wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes; (3) terminal moraine overtopping and dynamic moraine erosion simulations to determine the possibility of breaching; (4) flood propagation along downstream valleys; and (5) inundation of populated areas. The results of each process feed into simulations of subsequent processes in the chain, finally resulting in estimates of inundation in the city of Huaraz. The results of the inundation simulations were converted into flood intensity and preliminary hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Three avalanche events with volumes ranging from 0.5 to 3 × 10 6 m 3 were simulated, and two scenarios of 15 and 30 m lake lowering were simulated to assess the potential of mitigating the hazard level in Huaraz. For all three avalanche events, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models show large waves generated in the lake from the impact resulting in overtopping of the damming moraine. Despite very high discharge rates (up to 63.4 × 10 3 m 3 s −1 ), the erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming moraine when simulated with a hydromorphodynamic model using excessively conservative soil characteristics that provide very little erosion resistance. With the current lake level, all three avalanche events result in inundation in Huaraz due to wave overtopping, and the resulting preliminary hazard map shows a total affected area of 2.01 km 2 , most of which is in the high hazard category. Lowering the lake has the potential to reduce the affected area by up to 35 %, resulting in a smaller portion of the inundated area in the high hazard category.

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Mass Movements in Periglacial Environments

Stoffel

Huggel

2017

International Encyclopedia of Geography

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Changes in temperature and precipitation have a range of impacts, including change of glacier extent, extent and duration of snow cover, and distribution and thermal properties of permafrost. Climatic changes are also likely to affect the frequency and magnitude of mass movements, such as landslides, debris flows, rock slope failures, or ice avalanches. However, changes in mass‐movement activity can only hardly be detected in observational records so far. Documented here is the role of climate variability and change on mass‐movement processes in mountains, through the description and analysis of selected, recent mass movements where the effects of global warming and the occurrence of heavy precipitation are thought to have contributed to, or triggered, events. Also assessed are possible effects of future climatic changes on the incidence of mass‐movement processes.

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Coupling glacial lake impact, dam breach, and flood processes: A modeling perspective

Cited by 146 publications

References 83 publications

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

Mass Movements in Periglacial Environments

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