Coupled MOP and PLUS-SA Model Research on Land Use Scenario Simulations in Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area, Central China

Abstract

Land use simulations are critical in predicting the impact of land use change (LUC) on the Earth. Various assumptions and policies influence land use structure and are a key factor in decisions made by policymakers. Meanwhile, the spatial autocorrelation effect between land use types has rarely been considered in existing land use spatial simulation models, and the simulation accuracy needs to be further improved. Thus, in this study, the driving mechanisms of LUC are analyzed. The quantity demand and spatial distribution of land use are predicted under natural development (ND), economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and sustainability development (SD) scenarios in Zhengzhou based on the coupled Multi-Objective Programming (MOP) model and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model (PLUS) considering Spatial Autocorrelation (PLUS-SA). We conclude the following. (1) The land use type in Zhengzhou was mainly cultivated land, and 83.85% of the land for urban expansion was cultivated land from 2000 to 2020. The reduction in forest from 2010 to 2020 was less than that from 2000 to 2010 due to the implementation of the policy in which farmland is transformed back into forests. (2) The accuracy of PLUS-SA was better than that of the traditional PLUS and Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) models, and its Kappa coefficient, overall accuracy, and FOM were 0.91, 0.95, and 0.29, respectively. (3) Natural factors (temperature, precipitation, and DEM) contributed significantly to the expansion of cultivated land, and the increase in forest, grass, and construction land was greatly affected by socioeconomic factors (population, GDP, and proximity to town). (4) The land use structure will be more in line with the current requirements for sustainable urban development in the SD scenario, and the economic and ecological benefits will increase by 0.75 × 104 billion CNY and 1.71 billion CNY, respectively, in 2035 compared with those in 2020. The PLUS-SA model we proposed had higher simulation accuracy in Zhengzhou Compared with the traditional PLUS and FLUS models, and our research framework can provide a basis for decision-makers to formulate sustainable land use development policies to achieve high-quality and sustainable urban development.

Can Urbanization-Driven Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Reduce Ecosystem Services? A Case of Coupling Coordination Relationship for Contiguous Poverty Areas in China

“…The spatial and temporal relationships between urbanization, LUCC, and ESs in CPAs were explored using MGWR and path analysis methods [46][47][48]. Finally, the PLUS [49,50] and random forest [51] models were combined to assess the future coupling coordination of CPAs under SSP-RCP scenarios. The research framework is illustrated in Figure 2.…”

“…The PLUS model employs cellular automata (CA) and a random forest classification algorithm. Compared with the traditional CA-Markov method, it is able to predict patch changes in land more accurately [49], especially for forest and urban patches [50]. The PLUS model's simulation process includes land-use expansion extraction, land-use expansion analysis using the Land Use Expansion Analysis Strategy (LEAS), and a cellular automata model based on multi-class random patch seeds (CARS).…”