Coupled insights from the palaeoenvironmental, historical and archaeological archives to support social-ecological resilience and the sustainable development goals

Abstract

Many governments and organisations are currently aligning many aspects of their policies and practices to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Achieving the SDGs should increase social-ecological resilience to shocks like climate change and its impacts. Here, we consider the relationship amongst the three elements – the SDGs, social-ecological resilience and climate change – as a positive feedback loop. We argue that long-term memory encoded in historical, archaeological and related ‘palaeo-data’ is central to understanding each of these elements of the feedback loop, especially when long-term fluctuations are inherent in social-ecological systems and their responses to abrupt change. Yet, there is scant reference to the valuable contribution that can be made by these data from the past in the SDGs or their targets and indicators. The historical and archaeological records emphasise the importance of some key themes running through the SDGs including how diversity, inclusion, learning and innovation can reduce vulnerability to abrupt change, and the role of connectivity. Using paleo-data, we demonstrate how changes in the extent of water-related ecosystems as measured by indicator 6.6.1 may simply be related to natural hydroclimate variability, rather than reflecting actual progress towards Target 6.6. This highlights issues associated with using SDG indicator baselines predicated on short-term and very recent data only. Within the context of the contributions from long-term data to inform the positive feedback loop, we ask whether our current inability to substantively combat anthropogenic climate change threatens achieving both the SDGS and enhanced resilience to climate change itself. We argue that long-term records are central to understanding how and what will improve resilience and enhance our ability to both mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, for uptake of these data to occur, improved understanding of their quality and potential by policymakers and managers is required.

Frequent disturbances enhanced the resilience of past human populations

“…The frequency of downturns (FD) is associated with both the ability of past populations to withstand downturns and the rate of recovery following them across a broad sample of human populations. This runs counter to the historical particularism of archaeological work on past resilience 5,9 , which often emphasises the contingencies, decisions, and practices that underwrote successful adaptations in speci c times and places 25,26 . The results suggest the existence of a single common mechanism among human populations that confers resilience to disturbances.…”

Frequent disturbances enhanced the resilience of past human populations

“…Understanding past societies’ responses to crises is often explicitly motivated by the goal of applying learnings from the historical sciences to present-day policy and activism, contributing to the ultimate objective of fostering resilient adaptations for the future 6 . Most archaeological work on past resilience is historically particularistic 4 , 9 and emphasizes the contingencies, decisions and practices that underwrote successful adaptations in specific times and places 38 , 39 . This specificity can be illuminating but, if the historical sciences are to play any role in fostering future resilience, improving our understanding of the processes and drivers that influence long-term, centennial-scale resilience is a necessary prerequisite 5 .…”

Earth system resilience and tipping behavior

“…In alignment with the call for a long-term perspective on resilience analysis, Allen et al (2022) underscore the significance of considering historical and paleo-environmental data. They discuss the utility of paleo-environmental and historical data not only for research on resilience and sustainability, but decision making related to the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and climate change policy.…”