Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology-Biosphere Modeling: A Dynamic and Stochastic Approach

Ogutu, Keroboto B. Z.; D’Andrea, Fabio; Groth, Andreas; Ghil, Michael

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-72579-2_103

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 186 publications

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“…Policymakers and socioeconomic stakeholders lack, therefore, the essential scientific information on the risks and implications of crossing a threshold in factors extrinsic to the macroeconomic models in use. Building on an emerging consensus of the physical science basis regarding tipping points-such as the one that would be achieved in the course of an IPCC assessment cycle-could be an important step in a more realistic engagement between open-minded economists and climate scientists (Barnett et al 2020, Ghil 2020, Lackner et al 2022, Ogutu et al 2022.…”

Section: Discussion Of Broader Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system

Boers

Ghil

Stocker

2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Specific components of the Earth system may abruptly change their state in response to gradual changes in forcing. This possibility has attracted great scientific interest in recent years, and has been recognized as one of the greatest threats associated with anthropogenic climate change. Examples of such components, called tipping elements, include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the polar ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest, as well as the tropical monsoon systems. The mathematical language to describe abrupt climatic transitions is mainly based on the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems and, in particular, on their bifurcations. Applications of this theory to nonautonomous and stochastically forced systems are a very active field of climate research. The empirical evidence that abrupt transitions have indeed occurred in the past stems exclusively from paleoclimate proxy records. In this review, we explain the basic theory needed to describe critical transitions, summarize the proxy evidence for past abrupt climate transitions in different parts of the Earth system, and examine some candidates for future abrupt transitions in response to ongoing anthropogenic forcing. Predicting such transitions remains difficult and is subject to large uncertainties. Substantial improvements in our understanding of the nonlinear mechanisms underlying abrupt transitions of Earth system components are needed. We argue that such an improved understanding requires combining insights from (a) paleoclimatic records; (b) simulations using a hierarchy of models, from conceptual to comprehensive ones; and (c) time series analysis of recent observation-based data that encode the dynamics of the present-day Earth system components that are potentially prone to tipping.

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Section: Discussion Of Broader Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system

Boers

Ghil

Stocker

2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Most consumers believe buying environmentally friendly products aligns with their ethical and moral values [ 38 ]. They choose ecologically friendly options whenever presented with options which might be more harmful to the environment because they feel responsible for the earth and the well-being of the next generations [ 39 ]. While making greener purchases, buyers consider benefits like decreased exposure to hazardous materials, a lesser ecological imprint, and better living conditions.…”

Section: Development Of Hypotheses and Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the role of green behavior and perceived benefits in shaping green car buying behavior with environmental awareness as a moderator

Wu,

Ahmad,

Jaweria

et al. 2024

Heliyon

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Coupled Climate-Economy-Ecology-Biosphere Modeling: A Dynamic and Stochastic Approach

Cited by 2 publications

References 186 publications

Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system

Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system

Investigating the role of green behavior and perceived benefits in shaping green car buying behavior with environmental awareness as a moderator

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