Coupled application of R and WetSpa models for assessment of climate change impact on streamflow of Werie Catchment, Tigray, Ethiopia

Kidanemariam, Selam; Goitom, Haddush; Desta, Yigzaw

doi:10.2166/wcc.2020.238

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…The result obtained under all the scenarios considered in this study have shown increasing trend. This result agrees with different studies made by other researchers in Ethiopian catchments (IPCC 2014, Asnake et al , 2020; Gashaw et al , 2020; Selam et al , 2020).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

Prophesying the stream flow and perpetrating the performance of Halele-Werabessa reservoirs of Ethiopia using HEC-HMS and HEC-ResSim

Bekele¹,

Ayana

Mohammed

et al. 2021

WJE

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Purpose To assess the impacts of climate change on stream flow and evaluation of reservoir performances, reliability, resilience and vulnerability (RRV) indices are contemplated. Precipitation, temperature (Tmax, Tmin), relative humidity and solar radiation are the hydrological and meteorological data which have been used extensively. Climate data like RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were evaluated for the base period 1976–2005 and future climate scenario for 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 as per the convenience. Design/methodology/approach The hydrologic engineering center hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS) model was used to simulate the current and future inflow volume into the reservoir. The model performance resulted as 0.76 Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), 0.78 R2 and −3.17 D and during calibration the results obtained were 0.8 NSE, 0.82 R2 and 2.1 D. The projected climate scenario illustrates an increasing trend for both maximum and minimum temperature though a decreasing trend was documented for precipitation. The average time base reliability of the reservoirs was less than 50% without reservoir condition and greater than 50% for other conditions but volumetric reliability and resilience varies between 50% and 100% for all conditions. The vulnerability result of reservoirs may face shortage of flow ranging from 5.7% to 33.8%. Findings Evaluating reservoir simulation and hydropower generation for different climate scenarios by HEC-ResSim model, the energy generated for upper dam ranges from 349.4 MWhr to 331.2 MWhr and 4045.82 MWhr and 3946.74 MWhr for short and long-term future scenario, respectively. RCP for Tmax and Tmin goes on increasing whereas precipitation and inflow to reservoir decreases owing to increase in evapotranspiration. Under diverse climatic conditions power production goes on varying simultaneously. Originality/value This paper is original and all the references are properly cited.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

Prophesying the stream flow and perpetrating the performance of Halele-Werabessa reservoirs of Ethiopia using HEC-HMS and HEC-ResSim

Bekele¹,

Ayana

Mohammed

et al. 2021

WJE

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“…The study results suggest that Tmin will likely follow the same pattern for both scenarios. Although unexpected, previous studies have also found similar results [21,53]. Global warming is a result of increased greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere.…”

Section: Projected Trend Of Average Maximum and Minimum Air Temperatu...mentioning

confidence: 71%

The Assessment of Future Air Temperature and Rainfall Changes Based on the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM): The Case of the Wartburg Community in KZN Midlands, South Africa

Ncoyini-Manciya

Savage

2022

Sustainability

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The agriculture sector in Africa is dominated by small-scale farmers who account for about 80% of the total farms. However, small-scale farmers are vulnerable to climate change and climate variability. Their high susceptibility to climate change emanates from their inadequate ability to adapt to climate change. As a result, small-scale farmers are generally adversely impacted by climate change due to over-reliance on rainfed agriculture and natural resources. This exposure and susceptibility, however, differ across the regions due to the heterogeneity in topography, climate, access to resources, farmer resilience and adaptation capacity. Therefore, site-specific studies are encouraged to increase the awareness, resilience and adaptation capacity at the local level. The study intends to analyse historical climate (air temperature and rainfall) data from a weather station that has not been employed for climate change studies and project possible future changes in the same climate parameters due to global warming for a localised agricultural community within the sugarbelt region of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The study focuses mainly on air temperature and rainfall changes to inform local farmers about potential climate changes and possible impacts of the projected climate changes on the local agricultural productivity. This study was conducted in the KwaZulu-Natal midlands of South Africa, and the Representative Climate Pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) climate projection of the CanESM2 model were used for the projection of future air temperature and rainfall trends for the 2020s, the 2040s and the 2080s. According to the results, both minimum and maximum air temperatures will continue to increase for the entire study period. The RCP8.5 results indicate that maximum and minimum air temperatures will reach a maximum range of 1.72 to 3.14 °C and 1.54 to 3.48 °C, respectively. For the rainfall, the model projects a positive trend, although all the scenarios predict a declining trend for the near future (2020s) and an increase in the 2050s. These results indicate that, in the absence of adaptation the risk of small-scale farmers, particularly for sugarcane, which is largely planted in the area, the production losses will heighten and hence increase the likelihood of increased poverty, food insecurity and unemployment.

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“…For regions with no snowing, each of these parameters can be set to −1.0 [ 39 ]. Similar adjustments were made by Kidanemariam et al (2021) presuming that no significant snow formation occurred in the targeted basin [ 43 ]. The ability to adjust slightly sensitive or insensitive parameters comes as an added advantage when narrowing down the feasible parameter range [ 44 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 77%

Assessment of the impact of rainfall uncertainties on the groundwater recharge estimations of the Tikur-Wuha watershed, rift valley lakes basin, Ethiopia

Beyene,

Zimale,

Gebrekristos

et al. 2024

Heliyon

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Coupled application of R and WetSpa models for assessment of climate change impact on streamflow of Werie Catchment, Tigray, Ethiopia

Cited by 8 publications

References 32 publications

Prophesying the stream flow and perpetrating the performance of Halele-Werabessa reservoirs of Ethiopia using HEC-HMS and HEC-ResSim

Prophesying the stream flow and perpetrating the performance of Halele-Werabessa reservoirs of Ethiopia using HEC-HMS and HEC-ResSim

The Assessment of Future Air Temperature and Rainfall Changes Based on the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM): The Case of the Wartburg Community in KZN Midlands, South Africa

Assessment of the impact of rainfall uncertainties on the groundwater recharge estimations of the Tikur-Wuha watershed, rift valley lakes basin, Ethiopia

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