Coup-proofing strategies in counter-revolutionary regimes: Egypt since 2013

Abstract

This paper examines the strategies used by the Egyptian counter-revolutionary regime to maintain control over the armed forces and analyzes their impact on power dynamics and decision-making. The president employs a three-track strategy, focusing on preventing military coups, avoiding popular uprisings, and obstructing external support for regime change. While coup-proofing measures offer benefits in terms of ensuring the military's allegiance, the concessions granted to the military in return reinforced its autonomy. This autonomy may lead to military defection if circumstances change. The regime believes effective opposition mobilization will lead to street protests, causing the military to become the primary threat as it will not defend the regime against the people. Egypt's foreign policy aims to align its survival with regional and global powers' interests, with the military playing a crucial role. Tactics include compromising on economic reforms and offering lucrative military contracts to foreign corporations.