Coup-Proofing, Military Defection, and the Arab Spring

Makara, Michael

doi:10.1080/17419166.2013.802983

Cited by 101 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Despite institutional coup-proofing measures, Tunisia, Egypt, and Syria have seen very different outcomes in the context of the Arab Spring (Makara 2013): While the military defected to the opposition movement and was itself highly active in overthrowing the regimes in Tunisia and Egypt, the military remained largely loyal to the ruling government under Assad in Syria. Interestingly, the distribution of military organizations mirrors our previous rationale: Syria had 1,840 effective military organizations in 2011 according to our data described in the following, while Tunisia and Egypt could rely on 1,742 and 2,414 organizations respectively in that year.…”

Section: A Brief Overview Of the Literaturementioning

confidence: 98%

The Impact of Institutional Coup-Proofing on Coup Attempts and Coup Outcomes

Böhmelt

Pilster

2014

International Interactions

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Coup-proofing pertains to political leaders' strategies that will prevent groups inside or outside the state apparatus from seizing power via a coup d'état. One particular form of these strategies divides a country's military into rivaling organizations, thereby creating an artificial balance between and structural obstacles for the armed forces. Despite the general claim that this institutional coup-proofing is indeed effective, a recent empirical study does not obtain evidence for a negative impact on the risk of coup attempts or coup outcomes. The authors take this finding as a motivation for their re-evaluation of the effect of institutional coup-proofing on coup risk and outcomes. By developing an argument that rests on the concepts of collective action and polarization, it is contended that institutional coup-proofing and coups are characterized by a U-shaped relationship: Institutional coup-proofing is likely to lower the likelihood of coup onsets and successful outcomes, yet only until a tipping point of about two equally strong military organizations. After this turning point, the risk of coup onset as well as coup success may increase again. Using time-series cross-section data for 1975-1999, the authors find strong and robust support for their claims in terms of coup onset, but not coup outcomes.

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Section: A Brief Overview Of the Literaturementioning

confidence: 98%

The Impact of Institutional Coup-Proofing on Coup Attempts and Coup Outcomes

Böhmelt

Pilster

2014

International Interactions

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“…The respective military's engagement was decisive in determining the immediate course of events once people took to the streets (Barany, 2012;Bellin, 2012;Makara, 2013). Military officers have deposed long-serving presidents in Egypt (actively) and Tunisia (withdrawing support from President Ben Ali).…”

Section: Coup-proofing In the Middle East Revisitedmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Studies of political-military relations in the MENA region found that, prior to the uprisings, coup-proofing strategies were applied by authoritarian incumbents to secure the loyalty of their armed forces and, at the same time, keep ambitious officers in their barracks. Scholars of Middle East politics offered a substantial contribution to the broader body of literature on coup-proofing, based on their empirical expertise of the inner working mechanisms of regimes and armies (Springborg, 1987;Brooks, 1998;Quinlivan, 1999;Kamrava, 2000;Harb, 2003;Droz-Vincent, 2007;Cook, 2007;McLauchlin, 2010;Bou Nassif, 2013;Makara, 2013). The intervention of officers to protect respective regimes in Syria and Bahrain bears witness to the success of such protective measures.…”

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confidence: 97%

Does Coup-Proofing Work? Political–Military Relations in Authoritarian Regimes amid the Arab Uprisings

Albrecht

2014

Mediterranean Politics

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“…Das Interesse an den Bedingungen, unter denen die Streitkräfte dem Regime durch (temporäre) Befehlsverweigerung die Unterstützung entzogen, wird auch durch einige Studien über die Strategien arabischer Autokraten zur Putschprävention gespiegelt (Makara 2013;Albrecht 2014a;b). Dies mag auf einen blinden Fleck der bisherigen Repressionsforschung zurückzuführen sein, die zwar unabhängig von Regimetypus konstant belegte, dass Eliten auf Bedrohung ihrer Autorität durch Proteste nahezu reflexartig mit Repression reagierten (siehe hierzu Davenport 2007, S. 7).…”

Section: Die Zukunft Des Politischen Islamunclassified

Eine Schwalbe macht noch keinen Frühling: Die arabischen Umbrüche in der politikwissenschaftlichen Literatur

Grimm

2015

Z Vgl Polit Wiss

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Zusammenfassung Seit den Umbrüchen von 2011 ist der zuvor als stabil angenommene Arabische Raum zurück in den Fokus der Vergleichenden Regimeforschung gerückt, welche die Transformationsprozesse, die vielerorts Volksaufständen folgten, vorwiegend unter dem Gesichtspunkt von Demokratisierung betrachtet. Der Erkenntnisgewinn dieses Zugangs ist unter Regionalforschern allerdings umstritten, die auf die Multidirektionalität und -Dimensionalität der arabischen Umbrü-che hinweisen, die von Land zu Land äußerst unterschiedlich verlaufen sind. Dies ist nicht nur eine Folge verschiedenartiger struktureller Dispositionen, etwa hinsichtlich Regimetypus oder der Organisation von Machtzugängen. Vielmehr ist die hohe Varianz unter den Transformationspfaden, die die arabischen Gesellschaften eingeschlagen haben, vor allem das Ergebnis von Machtkämpfen zwischen Protestakteuren, Regimeeliten und ihren Sicherheitsorganen. Neben den Aktivisten der Volksaufstände haben sich in den vergangenen vier Jahren besonders die nationalen Armeen, und islamistische Vereinigungen als Kernakteure in den Transformationsdynamiken erwiesen. Dieser Beitrag präsentiert einen Überblick über die relevante Forschungsliteratur, die seit dem Arabischen Frühling innovative Perspektiven auf diese vielschichtigen Wandlungsprozesse geliefert und zu ihrem besseren Verständ-nis beigetragen hat.Schlüsselwörter Arabischer Frühling · Transition und Transformation · Akteure im Transformationsprozess · Autokratie · Mobilisierung 2 J. Grimm 3Abstract The upheavals of 2011 have catapulted the Arab World-once thought to be exceptionally stable-back onto the agenda of regime studies. Democratization quickly moved to become the dominant paradigm for comparative research on the transformation processes that followed the popular uprisings in many countries of the region. The insights generated by such a perspective are however limited. Region experts emphasize that the Arab transformations have unfolded in a very multidirectional and multidimensional way. In fact, trajectories of change differ significantly over the region. This diversity cannot be attributed solely to the divergent structural dispositions of the countries in question, such as varying regime types or different ways of organizing access to power. Instead, recent publications stress that the high variance in the preliminary outcomes of the Arab transitions is primarily a result of the contingent power struggles between protest actors, regime elites and security forces that have played out differently from country to country. During the past 4 years, apart from the revolutionary activists, especially the national Arab armies and Islamist groups have crystallized as key actors in the transition dynamics. This article provides an overview of the relevant scholarly literature that offers innovative perspectives and contributes to a better understanding of the Arab Spring.

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Coup-Proofing, Military Defection, and the Arab Spring

Cited by 101 publications

References 30 publications

The Impact of Institutional Coup-Proofing on Coup Attempts and Coup Outcomes

The Impact of Institutional Coup-Proofing on Coup Attempts and Coup Outcomes

Does Coup-Proofing Work? Political–Military Relations in Authoritarian Regimes amid the Arab Uprisings

Eine Schwalbe macht noch keinen Frühling: Die arabischen Umbrüche in der politikwissenschaftlichen Literatur

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