County land use carbon emission and scenario prediction in Mianyang Science and Technology City New District, Sichuan Province, China

Abstract

The role of carbon emissions resulting from land use change in the compilation of national greenhouse gas emission inventories is of paramount significance. This study is centered on the Mianyang Science and Technology City New Area located in Sichuan Province, China. We used the CLUE-S model and Sentinel-2A remote sensing data from 2017 to simulate and validate land use changes in 2022. Based on this validation, we established three simulation scenarios: a baseline scenario, an agricultural development scenario, and a construction development scenario. Using remote sensing data from 2022, we projected the land use for 2030. We also used CO2 concentration data collected in 2022 and 2023, processed the data using ArcGIS and Python, and conducted a quantitative analysis of carbon emissions under each scenario. Ultimately, the accuracy of both measured and predicted CO2 values for 2023 was juxtaposed and authenticated, thus concluding the investigative cycle of this study. Key findings include: (1) The accuracy of the CLUE-S model in the study area was assessed using overall accuracy, quantity disagreement and allocation disagreement indexes. In 2022, the overall accuracy is 98.19%, the quantity disagreement is 1.7%, and the allocation disagreement is 2.2%. (2) Distinct land resource utilization characteristics in scenarios, highlighting potential impacts on economic development and pollution. (3) Increased carbon emissions across scenarios, with construction development showing the highest rise (4.170%) and agricultural development the lowest (0.766%). (4) The predictive accuracy of the validation group's CO2 concentration values can reach 99.5%. This study proposes precise CO2 prediction at the county level, thus laying the groundwork for future research endeavors. Such findings are indispensable for informing carbon policy formulation and promoting low-carbon development strategies.