Country-level factors associated with the early spread of COVID-19 cases at 5, 10 and 15 days since the onset

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a significant global health crisis. As the disease continues to spread worldwide, little is known about the countrylevel factors affecting the transmission in the early weeks. The present study objective was to explore the country-level factors, including government actions that explain the variation in the cumulative cases of COVID-19 within the first 15 days since the first case reported. Using publicly available sources, country socioeconomic, demographic and health-related risk factors, together with government measures to contain COVID-19 spread, were analysed as predictors of the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases at three time points (t = 5, 10 and 15) since the first case reported (n = 134 countries). Drawing on negative binomial multivariate regression models, HDI, healthcare expenditure and resources, and the variation in the measures taken by the governments, significantly predicted the incidence risk ratios of COVID-19 cases at the three time points. The estimates were robust to different modelling techniques and specifications. Although wealthier countries have elevated human development and healthcare capacity in respect to their counterparts (low-and middle-income countries) the early implementation of effective and incremental measures taken by the governments are crucial to controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the early weeks.

Molecular Architecture of Early Dissemination and Massive Second Wave of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus in a Major Metropolitan Area

“…P andemic disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is now responsible for massive human morbidity and mortality worldwide (1-5). The virus was first documented to cause severe respiratory infections in Wuhan, China, beginning in late December 2019 (6-9).…”

Molecular Architecture of Early Dissemination and Massive Second Wave of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus in a Major Metropolitan Area

“…Pandemic disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is now responsible for massive human morbidity and mortality worldwide ( 1 – 5 ). The virus was first documented to cause severe respiratory infections in Wuhan, China, beginning in late December 2019 ( 6 – 9 ).…”

On the relationship between BCG coverage and national COVID‐19 outcome: could ‘heterologous’ herd immunity explain why some countries are better off?

“…The genetic, epigenetic, immunological and physiological determinants of individual COVID-19-infected subjects' prognoses remain elusive. Clearly, population-level differences have been observed during the early phase of the pandemic, with different countries having a highly variable disease burden reflected in COVID-19-related hospitalizations and deaths [8]. This observation holds true even when accounting for many confounders such as the countries' healthcare systems, general health status and life expectancy of the population as well as different pandemic prevention strategies [8].…”