Counterterrorism and Radical Eco-Groups: A Context for Exploring the Series Hazard Model

Carson, Jennifer Varriale

doi:10.1007/s10940-013-9211-4

Cited by 25 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Series hazard models have become increasingly popular in evaluating the effect of macro‐level changes like those of counterterrorism efforts on incident‐level data (see Dugan, , for a full description of this method). Previously used to evaluate measures against aerial hijackings (Dugan et al., ), terrorism in Northern Ireland (LaFree et al., ), and eco‐terrorism (Carson, ), this method estimates the change in an incident's hazard rate based on event‐ and date‐specific variables. Given the frequency of incidents perpetrated by the global jihadist movement, analyses could only be conducted on more limited dependent variables.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, the role of the aforementioned killings on the frequency and hazard of incidents involving fatalities and categorized as suicide attacks was examined in this research. It is also important, particularly given recent work on displacement effects (Carson, ; Hsu and Apel, ; Lum et al., ), that terrorism outcomes are disaggregated. In other words, although total terrorism could be affected by a policy, this effect becomes moot if it that same policy increases more problematic outcomes.…”

Section: Current Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing the Effectiveness of High‐Profile Targeted Killings in the “War on Terror”

Carson

2017

Criminology & Public Policy

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Research Summary Since the attacks of September 11, 2001, and the ensuing “war on terrorism,” the U.S. government has engaged in a series of controversial counterterrorism policies. Perhaps none is more so than the use of targeted killings aimed at eliminating the senior leadership of the global jihadist movement. Nevertheless, prior research has yet to establish that this type of tactic is effective, even among high‐profile targets. Employing a robust methodology, I find that these types of killings primarily yielded negligible effects. Policy Implications Given the immense controversy surrounding the policy of targeted killings, it has become that much more vital to assess whether such measures are effective. This study's findings, that most of these high‐profile killings either had no influence or were associated with a backlash effect, have important implications for future counterterrorism efforts. All in all, the U.S. government's investment in the policy of targeted killings seems to be counterproductive if its main intention is a decrease in terrorism perpetrated by the global jihadist movement.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Current Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Effectiveness of High‐Profile Targeted Killings in the “War on Terror”

Carson

2017

Criminology & Public Policy

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“…Thus, sentencing enhancements for serious offenses deemed as terrorism that already carry hefty prison sentences (e.g., murder and violent assaults) may not be as effective as those targeting less nefarious actions with small sentencing repercussions. Supplying support of this, some recent terrorism studies have found deterrent effects stemming from certain legislative initiatives that enhanced sanctions on particular illegal activities perpetrated by ecoterrorist groups in the United States, who are primarily engaged in nonviolent activities aimed at causing property damage (Carson, 2014; Carson, LaFree, & Dugan, 2012).…”

Section: Research Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 95%

Examining the state repression‐terrorism nexus: Dynamic relationships among repressive counterterrorism actions, terrorist targets, and deadly terrorist violence in Israel

Hsu

McDowall

2020

Criminology & Public Policy

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Research Summary: This study assesses the impact of state repressive counterterrorism actions on terrorists' targeting and lethality of the terrorism landscape in Israel.Using systematic data on government responses to terrorism and an empirical model that addresses reciprocal relationships, we analyze dynamical interactions between types of government repression with attacks against civilian or government targets, and deadly terrorist violence. Contrary to public policy pronouncements of forcefully fighting terrorism to eradicate terrorist threats, our results suggest that repressive counterterrorism actions by the state increase terror and deadly violence. Importantly, the results indicate that these unintended escalatory or backlash effects are dependent on the scope of government repression, the type of terrorist targets, and the lethality of terrorism.Policy Implications: Our findings provide insight into particular behaviors and exchanges within the state repressionterrorism nexus that evoke and prolong terrorist violence.Centered on key aspects of terrorist activities involving target choice and deadly violence, our ecological study contributes to the development of a systematic understanding of specific impacts of government policies on terrorism. In all, constructing an empirically rigorous evidence base for Criminology & Public Policy. 2020;19:483-514. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/capp

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“…Based on prior work that finds important displacement and diffusion effects (Carson, 2014, 2017; Hepworth, 2014; Hsu & Apel, 2015; Wilner, 2010), coupled with the literature on the unique impact of suicide events (Brym & Araj, 2006; Piazza, 2008), this investigation evaluates terrorism as a multifaceted outcome. In other words, effectiveness cannot solely be examined through total terrorism when it is possible that this same tactic could increase more problematic outcomes.…”

Section: Current Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Nuances of Counterterrorism Programs: A Country-Level Investigation of Targeted Killings

Carson

2018

Crime & Delinquency

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Although there has been research assessing the effectiveness of targeted killings in a variety of contexts, there remains important gaps in the literature. This study addresses these gaps by evaluating previously established nuanced effects together in one analysis, while at the same time incorporating vital country-level controls. This investigation utilizes two types of analytic strategies, ZINB and series hazard models, with multiple independent and dependent variables. Overall, this study fails to find clear evidence that targeted killings are correlated with terrorism outcomes in the three countries in which they are most commonly used: Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia.

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Counterterrorism and Radical Eco-Groups: A Context for Exploring the Series Hazard Model

Cited by 25 publications

References 39 publications

Assessing the Effectiveness of High‐Profile Targeted Killings in the “War on Terror”

Assessing the Effectiveness of High‐Profile Targeted Killings in the “War on Terror”

Examining the state repression‐terrorism nexus: Dynamic relationships among repressive counterterrorism actions, terrorist targets, and deadly terrorist violence in Israel

Assessing the Nuances of Counterterrorism Programs: A Country-Level Investigation of Targeted Killings

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