“…Kontrafaktiska argument kan illustrera att ett annat alternativ hade resulterat i en annan utgång (Capoccia & Kelemen, 2007;Bunzl, 2004). Genom att ta hänsyn till alternativ, som faktiskt var möjliga, men som inte valdes kan antagandet om spårbundenhet förstärkas.…”
“…Kontrafaktiska argument kan illustrera att ett annat alternativ hade resulterat i en annan utgång (Capoccia & Kelemen, 2007;Bunzl, 2004). Genom att ta hänsyn till alternativ, som faktiskt var möjliga, men som inte valdes kan antagandet om spårbundenhet förstärkas.…”
“…Indeed, some commentators on counterfactual history have stressed the quality of disciplined imagination that makes the difference between good and poor counterfactual history. As Bunzl (2004) writes, 'when it comes to examining the consequences of historical counterfactual, like most historians, Ferguson implicitly embraces the view that what is involved is always and only an act of imagination' (p. 848). Indeed, Bunzl goes on to argue that 'the difference between plausible and implausible counterfactuals might be thought of as a function of the degree to which we are able to discipline our imagination, and there is a case to be made that one of the effects of being a good (and specialised) historian is that one's imagination is just as disciplined ' (2004, p. 848).…”
Section: … [Counterfactual] History Can Provide a Useful Resource' (Pmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…It consciously builds its narrative on the following question: what if the controversial events of 11 November 1975 in Canberra had been different? Bunzl (2004) contends alternate history is related to, but distinct from, counterfactual history or virtual history -the terms used by some professional historians when using thoroughly researched and carefully reasoned speculations on 'what might have happened if ...' as a tool of academic historical research and historiography (see Chapter 7). Thus, Macintyre and Scalmer's What If (2006) is an example of a volume of counterfactual histories, all written by highly regarded scholars seeking to search out historiographical understanding of various events in Australia's history.…”
“…However, as explained by Bunzl (2004), if historians want to make causal claims claims, then implicit counterfactual claims come along for the ride. Stating that event B followed because of the preceding event A implies that if event A had not happened, then B would not have happened either.…”
Section: Challenges Of Counterfactual Reasoningmentioning
We present a systematic review of investigations of some large incidents in Norway from 1999 to 2008. The purpose of the review is to identify factors that affect the risk level during emergency response. We found that the most important factor that increases the risk level for rescue personnel and civilians is lacking acknowledgement of risks due to lack of knowledge, causing inadequate counter measures. The most critical mistakes are made during the early stages of the response operation, before the external expertise arrives on the scene.
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