Counterfactual Analysis With Artificial Controls: Inference, High Dimensions and Nonstationarity

Masini, Ricardo; Medeiros, Marcelo C.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3303308

Cited by 15 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Yet, we remain somewhat cautious about our results in Fig. 4 due to the non-stationarity caveats raised by Masini and Medeiros (2019) and the unavailability of climatic data. Thus, we cannot completely discount the possibility that our results, while robust and significant, could be plagued by oversized tests of no intervention effects or, unlikely as it may seem, mediated by extreme climatic events coinciding with the lockdown.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 81%

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The Unintended Impact of Colombia’s Covid-19 Lockdown on Forest Fires

Amador-Jiménez

Millner

Palmer

et al. 2020

Environ Resource Econ

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The covid-19 pandemic led to rapid and large-scale government intervention in economies and societies. A common policy response to covid-19 outbreaks has been the lockdown or quarantine. Designed to slow the spread of the disease, lockdowns have unintended consequences for the environment. This article examines the impact of Colombia's lockdown on forest fires, motivated by satellite data showing a particularly large upsurge of fires at around the time of lockdown implementation. We find that Colombia's lockdown is associated with an increase in forest fires compared to three different counterfactuals, constructed to simulate the expected number of fires in the absence of the lockdown. To varying degrees across Colombia's regions, the presence of armed groups is correlated with this fire upsurge. Mechanisms through which the lockdown might influence fire rates are discussed, including the mobilisation of armed groups and the reduction in the monitoring capacity of state and conservation organisations during the covid-19 outbreak. Given the fast-developing situation in Colombia, we conclude with some ideas for further research.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 81%

“…Another concern arises from the inspection of the time series used as outcome variables. Indeed, as reported by Masini and Medeiros (2019), the SCM suffers from issues of over-rejection of the null hypothesis of no effect when the data are nonstationary, as is the case for the daily count of fire observations (Fig. 3).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 83%

The Unintended Impact of Colombia’s Covid-19 Lockdown on Forest Fires

Amador-Jiménez

Millner

Palmer

et al. 2020

Environ Resource Econ

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“…(2.2) is defined as:

where

is the number of days in the estimation window, and

is the penalty parameter. Theoretical justification for the use of LASSO to estimate the parameters in this setup with trends can be found in Masini and Medeiros (2021) .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short-term Covid-19 forecast for latecomers

Medeiros

Street

Valladão

et al. 2022

International Journal of Forecasting

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“…3.Although the synthetic control method (SCM) is different from the panel data approach (Wan et al, 2018), the time-series nature of the data has been ignored in the SCM literature. Masini and Medeiros (2019) argued that, when the data are nonstationary, the use of the SCM, inferential procedures to evaluate the effects of the intervention, can be misleading. As Bai et al (2014) insisted, the panel data approach might be better.…”

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confidence: 99%

Marketing, congestion, and demarketing in Utah’s National Parks

2020

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Utah’s Mighty 5 ad campaign was designed to attract out-of-state visitors to southern Utah’s five National Parks (NPs). Using the synthetic control method, we find the campaign to have contributed to rapid visitation growth at Arches, Canyonlands, and Capitol Reef NPs. No ad campaign effect was found for Bryce Canyon and Zion NPs, which implies that recent increased visitation at these parks has been driven by the national trends and not the Mighty 5 promotion. Arches, Bryce Canyon, and Zion currently suffer from excess demand (congestion), and the US National Park Service is actively engaged in visitor management efforts to mitigate the environmental pressures associated with overvisitation. The state has responded to congestion by crafting a new “demarketing” campaign to provide a more tailored tourism experience aimed at increasing the value of a visit and diverting potential tourists to high-quality alternative sites selected to match visitor interests.

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Counterfactual Analysis With Artificial Controls: Inference, High Dimensions and Nonstationarity

Cited by 15 publications

References 21 publications

The Unintended Impact of Colombia’s Covid-19 Lockdown on Forest Fires

The Unintended Impact of Colombia’s Covid-19 Lockdown on Forest Fires

Short-term Covid-19 forecast for latecomers

Marketing, congestion, and demarketing in Utah’s National Parks

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