Could the changes in regional crop yields be a pointer of climatic change?

Trnka, Miroslav; Brázdil, Rudolf; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Eitzinger, Josef; Zahradníček, Pavel; Kocmánková, E.; Dobrovolný, Petr; Štěpánek, Petr; Možný, Martin; Bartošová, Lenka; Hlavinka, Petr; Semerádová, Daniela; Valášek, Hubert; Havlíček, Marek; Horáková, Vladimíra; Fischer, Milan; Žalud, Zdeněk

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.05.020

Cited by 60 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Knowledge that contributes to modelling for future drought episodes is of particular interest. However, there are signs that agricultural production in the Czech Lands, or at least in parts of them, has grown steadily more sensitive to drought (and increased temperatures) over the past 130 yr (Trnka et al, 2012). Recent studies have also suggested a significant increase in the risk of drought events arising out of climate changes (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Further, the sensitivity of the landscape (expressed as, for example, crop yields) to droughts, as well as society itself, has changed over past centuries (e.g. Trnka et al, 2012). Thus, even if a drought study could be based on observed impacts it would be difficult to compare drought events of the same intensity over the centuries.…”

Section: Uncertainty In the Drought Chronology Compiled For The Czechmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The 5 yr return period was based on agro-climatological studies (e.g. Hlavinka et al, 2009;Trnka et al, 2012) showing harvests significantly influenced by drought in approximately 20 % of cases over the past 130 yr. Figure 6 shows the decadal frequencies of droughts expressed by SPEI-1, Z-index and PDSI for April-September Table 1. Dry weather and droughts in the Czech Lands before 1500 AD (Brázdil and Kotyza, 1995 (Fig.…”

Section: Droughts In the Czech Lands In The Instrumental Periodmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Droughts in the Czech Lands, 1090–2012 AD

et al. 2013

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This paper addresses droughts in the Czech Lands in the 1090–2012 AD period, basing its findings on documentary evidence and instrumental records. Various documentary sources were employed for the selection of drought events, which were then interpreted at a monthly level. While the data on droughts before 1500 AD are scarce, the analysis concentrated mainly on droughts after this time. A dry year in 1501–1804 period (i.e. pre-instrumental times) was defined as a calendar year in the course of which dry patterns occurred on at least two consecutive months. Using this definition, 129 dry years were identified (an average of one drought per 2.4 yr). From the 16th to the 18th centuries these figures become 41, 36 and 49 yr respectively, with the prevailing occurrence of dry months from April to September (73.7%). Drought indices – SPEI-1, Z-index and PDSI – calculated for the Czech Lands for April–September describe drought patterns between 1805 and 2012 (the instrumental period). N-year recurrence intervals were calculated for each of the three indices. Using N ≥ 5 yr, SPEI-1 indicates 40 drought years, Z-index 39 yr and PDSI 47 yr. SPEI-1 and Z-index recorded 100 yr drought in 1834, 1842, 1868, 1947 and 2003 (50 yr drought in 1992). PDSI as an indicator of long-term drought disclosed two important drought periods: 1863–1874 and 2004–2012. The first period was related to a lack of precipitation, the other may be attributed to recent temperature increases without significant changes in precipitation. Droughts from the pre-instrumental and instrumental period were used to compile a long-term chronology for the Czech Lands. The number of years with drought has fluctuated between 26 in 1951–2000 and 16 in 1651–1700. Only nine drought years were recorded between 1641 and 1680, while between 1981 and 2012 the figure was 22 yr. A number of past severe droughts are described in detail: in 1540, 1590, 1616, 1718 and 1719. A discussion of the results centres around the uncertainty problem, the spatial variability of droughts, comparison with tree-ring reconstructions from southern Moravia, and the broader central European context

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Uncertainty In the Drought Chronology Compiled For The Czechmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Droughts In the Czech Lands In The Instrumental Periodmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Droughts in the Czech Lands, 1090–2012 AD

et al. 2013

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“…The detrimental effect of soil degradation might be aggravated by climate change, as mean annual temperature in Moldova has increased by 1.4 • C since 1970 (Vronskih, 2014). This could have contributed to the decline of agricultural productivity because summer temperatures are already beyond the 610 M. Wiesmeier et al: Remediation of degraded arable steppe soils in Moldova optimum of most crops, the probability of droughts has increased and the mineralization of SOM may be accelerated (Eitzinger et al, 2013;Supit et al, 2010;Trnka et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Remediation of degraded arable steppe soils in Moldova using vetch as green manure

Wiesmeier

Lungu²,

Hübner

et al. 2015

Solid Earth

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Abstract. In the Republic of Moldova, non-sustainable arable farming led to severe degradation and erosion of fertile steppe soils (Chernozems). As a result, the Chernozems lost about 40 % of their initial amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC). The aim of this study was to remediate degraded arable soils and promote carbon sequestration by implementation of cover cropping and green manuring in Moldova. Thereby, the suitability of the legume hairy vetch (Vicia sativa) as cover crop under the dry continental climate of Moldova was examined. At two experimental sites, the effect of cover cropping on chemical and physical soil properties as well as on yields of subsequent main crops was determined. The results showed a significant increase of SOC after incorporation of hairy vetch mainly due to increases of aggregateoccluded and mineral-associated OC. This was related to a high above-and belowground biomass production of hairy vetch associated with a high input of carbon and nitrogen into arable soils. A calculation of SOC stocks based on equivalent soil masses revealed a sequestration of around 3 t C ha −1 yr −1 as a result of hairy vetch cover cropping. The buildup of SOC was associated with an improvement of the soil structure as indicated by a distinct decrease of bulk density and a relative increase of macroaggregates at the expense of microaggregates and clods. As a result, yields of subsequent main crops increased by around 20 %. Our results indicated that hairy vetch is a promising cover crop to remediate degraded steppe soils, control soil erosion and sequester substantial amounts of atmospheric C in arable soils of Moldova.

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“…With regard to wheat, an increase of 1°C during grain fill reduces the length of this phase by 5%, and yield declines by a similar amount (Olesen et al 2000). However, in the Nordic countries such reductions in crop duration can often be more than offset by shifting to cultivars with longer growth duration (Olesen et al 2012), and this may even lead to improved yields with potentially longer growing seasons at high latitudes (Montesino-San Martin et al 2014).…”

Section: Temperature and Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%