Could Changing Power Relationships Lead to Better Water Sharing in Central Asia?

Abstract

Abstract:Even though Central Asia is water rich, water disputes have characterized the region after crumbling of the Soviet Union in 1991. The uneven spatial distribution and complex pattern of transboundary water sources with contrasting national water needs have created an intricate water dilemma. Increasing national water needs, water claims by surrounding countries, uncertainties in renewable water volumes, and effects of climate change will put further strain on the future water use in Central Asia. We argue that the present power distribution with three downstream hegemons (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) and two upstream much poorer countries with less political influence (Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) is not likely to lead forward to a greater willingness to share water. We discuss this situation with the analogue Egypt-Sudan-Ethiopia in the Nile Basin. Thus, as in the case of Ethiopia in the Nile Basin, gradually economically stronger upstream countries Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan due to hydropower development are likely to eventually re-define the hydropolitical map of Central Asia. As in the case of the Nile Basin, a more even power balance between upstream and downstream countries may lead to an improved political structure for a much needed better collaboration on water issues.

Essentials of Endorheic Basins and Lakes: A Review in the Context of Current and Future Water Resource Management and Mitigation Activities in Central Asia

“…Precipitation in the CA region is highly variable: the highest precipitation rates (>2400 mm/year) are found in the mountainous areas, whereas on the plains of Kazakhstan the mean annual precipitation is only around 250 mm [25]. Desert regions receive annual rainfalls of 100 mm or less [25].…”

“…Desert regions receive annual rainfalls of 100 mm or less [25]. The inland Eurasian atmospheric moisture supply is dominated by westerlies [23,[26][27][28].…”

“…Other major sources of water in winter (~30%) originate in the Mediterranean Sea [26]. Evaporation dominates the water balance of the endorheic basins of CA, with PET rates reaching values as high as 3800 mm/year in the Chinese hyper-arid Turpan basin [25,29]. The majority of CA basins can be classified as having semi-arid or arid climates, with meltwater from the cryosphere providing a substantial inflow of water for the dryland rivers [21,30].…”

“…It belongs to a basin shared with China and Kyrgyzstan, with a watershed area of more than 400,000 km 2 [50]. The inflow to the lake stems from runoff and streamflow generated in the Tien Shan and Dzungar Alatau Mountains with the Ili River supplying about 80% of all water, while the remaining water comes from the Karatal, Aksu, Lepcy, and Ayaguz Rivers [25,50,51]. The Ili River flow to Balkhash Lake is regulated by the Kapchagay reservoir, which was constructed around 1970, both to generate electricity and to supply water for irrigation in the region [52].…”

“…On the contrary, Propastin [50], using satellite altimetry, found an increase in lake levels of more than 1.5 m between 1993 and 2005, indicating that there is uncertainty with regards to the lake's size. The main river in the Balkhash basin is the Ili River that originates in the Chinese Tien Shan, and China has progressively increased the water withdrawals from this river for irrigation [25,51]. Thus far, Kazakhstan and China have been unable to reach an agreement regarding the regulation of the Ili River flow [25].…”