Cost overruns and delays in energy megaprojects: How big is big enough?

Callegari, Camila; Szklo, Alexandre; Schaeffer, Roberto

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2017.11.059

Cited by 64 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…An additional challenge for hydropower is the risk of capital cost overruns, particularly in large-scale projects (Ansar et al, 2014;Bacon & Besant-Jones, 1998;Callegari et al, 2018). Given that geotechnical conditions cannot be precisely assessed until after the construction of the project begins, hydropower presents inherent difficulties during the construction phase including unforeseen excavations and construction problems that can increase investment requirements considerably.…”

Section: Critical Challenges For Hydropower Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador

Carvajal

2019

Climate Policy

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Hydropower is the dominant renewable energy source to date, providing over two-thirds of all renewable electricity globally. For countries with significant hydropower potential, the technology is expected to play a major role in the energy transition needed to meet nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions as laid out in the Paris Agreement. For the Republic of Ecuador, large hydropower is currently considered as the main means for attaining energy security, reducing electricity prices and mitigating GHG emissions in the long-term. However, uncertainty around the impacts of climate change, investment cost overruns and restrictions to untapped resources may challenge the future deployment of hydropower and consequently impact decarbonisation efforts for Ecuador's power sector. To address these questions, a partial equilibrium energy system optimisation model for Ecuador (TIMES-EC) is used to simulate alternative electricity capacity expansion scenarios up to 2050. Results show that the share of total electricity supplied by hydropower in Ecuador might vary significantly between 53% to 81% by 2050. Restricting large hydropower due to social-environmental constraints can cause a fourfold increase in cumulative emissions compared to NDC implied levels, while a 25% reduction of hydropower availability due to climate change would cause cumulative emissions to double. In comparison, a more diversified power system (although more expensive) which limits the share of large hydropower and natural gas in favour of other renewables could achieve the expected NDC emission levels. These insights underscore the critical importance of undertaking detailed whole energy system analyses to assess the long-term challenges for hydropower deployment and the trade-offs among power system configuration, system costs and expected GHG emissions in hydropower-dependent countries, states and territories. Key policy insights • Ecuador's hydropower-based NDC is highly vulnerable to the occurrence of a dry climate scenario and restrictions to deployment of large hydropower in the Amazon region. • Given Ecuador's seasonal runoff pattern, fossil-fuel or renewable thermoelectric backup will always be required, whatever the amount of hydropower installed. • Ecuador's NDC target for the power sector is achievable without the deployment of large hydropower infrastructure, through a more diversified portfolio with non-hydro renewables.

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Section: Critical Challenges For Hydropower Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador

Carvajal

2019

Climate Policy

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“…Many external stakeholders participate in mega projects, including but not limited to investors, contractors, governments and suppliers, which will cause social conflicts as a cause of complexity to be occurred. https://doi.org/10.15405/epms.2019.12.6 Corresponding Author: Mohammad Mohseni Selection and peer-review under & Hertogh, 2018;Callegari, Szklo, & Schaeffer, 2018;Dao et al, 2016;Eriksson et al, 2017;Forozandeh, Ebrahim, & Makui, 2018;Hartono, 2018;He, Luo, Hu, & Chan, 2015;Hu et al, 2015;Abdou et al, 2016;Kuhn, Schaefer, & Otten, 2018;Lessard, Sakhrani, & Miller, 2014;Makui, Zadeh, Bagherpour, & Jabbarzadeh, 2018;Maylor & Turner, 2017;Mikkelsen, 2018;Mirza & Ehsan, 2017;Mok, Shen, & Yang, 2015;Mozaffari, Fazli, & Sedaghat-Seresht, 2012;Nguyen et al, Ambiguity in the domain the dynamics of work activities 5 (Bakhshi et al, 2016;Bjorvatn & Wald 2018;Bosch-Rekveldt et al, 2018;Callegari et al, 2018;Dao et al 2016;Eriksson et al 2017;Forozandeh et al, 2018;Habibi, Barzinpour, & Sadjadi, 2018;Hartono 2018;He et al, 2015;Invernizzi, Locatelli, Gronqvis, & Brookes, 2019;Abdou et al, 2016;Kuhn et al, 2018;Lehtinen, Peltokorpi, & Artto, 2019;…”

Section: Step 3 • Review Journals and Top Authorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Number of specializations involved in the project, 4 (Bjorvatn & Wald 2018;Bosch-Rekveldt et al, 2018;Callegari et al, 2018;Dao et al, 2016;Eriksson et al, 2017;Forozandeh et al, 2018;Habibi et al, 2018;Hartono, 2018;He et al, 2015;Hu et al, 2015;Abdou et al, 2016;Kuhn et al, 2018;Lessard et al, 2014;Li et al, 2018;Makui et al, 2018;Maylor & Turner, 2017;Mirza & Ehsan, 2017;Mok et al, 2015;Mozaffari et al, 2012;Nachbagauer & Schirl-Boeck, 2019;Nguyen et al, 2015;Qazi et https://doi.org/10.15405/epms.2019.12.6 Corresponding Author: Mohammad Mohseni Selection and peer-review under 14 al., 2016;Qiu et al, 2019;Rolstadås & Schiefloe 2017;Senescu et al, 2013;Shahhossein et al, 2017;Sheffield et al, 2012;Shi et al 2018;Silva, Akchurin, & Bebbington, 2018;Sridarran et al, 2017;Turner & Xue, 2018;Zhu & Mostafavi, 2017) Common vision of the project team, 3…”

Section: Referred Researchersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Complexity Factors In Mega Projects: A Literature Review

Mohseni¹

2019

The European Proceedings of Multidisciplinary Sciences

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Evaluation of complexity is of considerable importance for project managers in mega projects. Project managers faced with complexities that have not worked so far and are new to their kind. While as for the complexity of project, there is still a lack of complete understanding of the complexity concept among practitioners in the industry as well as in project management body of knowledge. In this regard, the traditional project management principles and practices are not capable of controlling emerging complexities in mega projects. Undoubtedly one of the key factors for success in mega projects is knowledge of project managers about overall complexities and contributing factors on complexities. As the main approach of this paper is overview the factors of complexity in mega projects, a systematic literature review analysis on complexity features in mega projects achieved by examining over one hundred and fifty published research papers during the period of 2012-2019. As a result of this exploration, the research highlighted three (3) dimensions (Environmental, Technological, and Organizational) and over seventy-three factors of complexity in mega projects from the extent literature. The research findings help scholars and practitioners in the project management field developing the perception of complexities in managing mega projects effectively.

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“…Despite the prosperity of megaprojects, it is a truism that megaprojects are confronted with various problems such as extreme technical and social complexity, poor delivery, poor performance of construction safety, and severe impact on society, human conditions, and environment (Callegari et al, 2018;Flyvbjerg, 2011). To address these problems, project governance, an approach that is beyond management and dealing with complexity, has been widely used in managing megaprojects, trying to ensure the success of megaprojects (Müller & Lecoeuvre, 2014;Pitsis et al, 2014;van Marrewijk & Smits, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Impact of Governmental Governance on Megaproject Performance: Evidence From China

Zhai

Shan

2020

Technological and Economic Development of Economy

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Governmental governance is an emerging concept in the area of governance and is critical to the success of megaprojects. The aims of this study are to investigate the impact of governmental governance on megaproject performance and to identify the most critical component of governmental governance. To achieve these goals, a conceptual framework of governmental governance and a comprehensive framework of megaproject performance were established first, followed by proposing a research hypothesis that governmental governance could contribute to megaproject performance. To test the hypothesis, data collected by a questionnaire administered to 239 professionals were analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modelling. Results showed that governmental governance could contribute to megaproject performance significantly. It also reported that “public monitoring and scrutiny” was the most critical latent variable of governmental governance on megaproject performance, followed by “systemic risk management,” “regulatory oversight,” “construction of clean government,” “strategic planning,” and “institutional design.” This study has contributed to the body of knowledge of governmental governance by investigating its impact on megaproject performance. The findings from this study are useful to the industry as well, because they can enhance practitioners’ understanding of governmental governance, which could help them improve their management of megaprojects eventually.

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Cost overruns and delays in energy megaprojects: How big is big enough?

Cited by 64 publications

References 14 publications

Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador

Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador

Complexity Factors In Mega Projects: A Literature Review

Investigating the Impact of Governmental Governance on Megaproject Performance: Evidence From China

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