Cost optimal scenarios of a future highly renewable European electricity system: Exploring the influence of weather data, cost parameters and policy constraints

Abstract

Cost optimal scenarios derived from models of a highly renewable electricity system depend on the specific input data, cost assumptions and system constraints. Here this influence is studied using a techno-economic optimisation model for a networked system of 30 European countries, taking into account the capacity investment and operation of wind, solar, hydroelectricity, natural gas power generation, transmission, and different storage options. A considerable robustness of total system costs to the input weather data and to moderate changes in the cost assumptions is observed. Flat directions in the optimisation landscape around cost-optimal configurations often allow system planners to choose between different technology options without a significant increase in total costs, for instance by replacing onshore with offshore wind power capacity in case of public acceptance issues. Exploring a range of carbon dioxide emission limits shows that for scenarios with moderate transmission expansion, a reduction of around 57% compared to 1990 levels is already cost optimal. For stricter carbon dioxide limits, power generated from gas turbines is at first replaced by generation from increasing renewable capacities. Non-hydro storage capacities are only built for low-emission scenarios, in order to provide the necessary flexibility to meet peaks in the residual load.

The role of storage technologies throughout the decarbonisation of the sector-coupled European energy system

“…The need for hydrogen is also reduced due to the lower economic impact of wind curtailment. The reader is referred to [46] for extended analyses on the influence of weather data, cost parameters and policy constraints on the power system optimal configuration.…”

“…Fifth, only one year has been used to represent variability of renewable generation. In [46], 4 years of weather data were used to analyse the system sensitivity, and the cost of the power sector was found to be stable, although extensive sensitivity analysis to weather data such the one in [48] are desirable. Sixth, the coarse grained network used here might also impact the results.…”

Impact of CO2 prices on the design of a highly decarbonised coupled electricity and heating system in Europe

“…Other factors that could raise the sensitivity problem are the cost assumptions, such as the ratio of capital costs between wind and solar. Schlachtberger et al [39] evaluated the influence of weather data, cost parameters, and policy constraints to the cost-optimal highly renewable European electricity system. Although the mentioned sensitivities were observed, the authors found the total system cost to be robust to different years of weather data and moderate changes in the cost assumptions.…”

Flow-Based Analysis of Storage Usage in a Low-Carbon European Electricity Scenario

“…This constraint is set to a reduction of emissions of 95% compared to 1990 levels. Since the only fossil fuel generators in the model are open cycle gas turbines, the constraint (7) directly translates into the amount of fuel burned by these generators, and thus into the amount of power generated from this source [16], [17].…”