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AbstractBackground The natural history of familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH), benefit of early intervention, and under-diagnosis, present a case for screening. Cascade testing (CT) of relatives has been shown to be feasible, acceptable and cost-effective in the UK, but is dependent on a supply of index cases. Feasibility of universal screening (US) at age 1-2 years was recently demonstrated. We examined whether this would be a cost-effective adjunct to CT in the UK, given the current and plausible future undiagnosed FH prevalence.Methods Seven cholesterol and/or mutation-based US ± reverse cascade testing (RCT) alternatives were compared with no US in an incremental analysis with a UK NHS perspective. A decision model was used to estimate costs and outcomes for cohorts exposed to the US component of each strategy. RCT case ascertainment was modelled using recent UK CT data, and probabilistic Markov models estimated lifetime costs and health outcomes for the cohorts screened under each alternative. 1,000Monte Carlo simulations were run for each model, and average outcomes reported.Further uncertainty was explored deterministically. Threshold analysis investigated the association between undiagnosed FH prevalence and cost-effectiveness.Findings A strategy involving cholesterol screening followed by diagnostic genetic testing and then RCT was the most cost-effective alternative modelled (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) versus no screening £12,480/quality adjusted life year (QALY); probability of cost-effectiveness 96·8% at £20,000/QALY threshold). Costeffectiveness was robust to the deterministic sensitivity analyses, and threshold analysis suggested that sequential cholesterol screening-genetic testing plus RCT would remain cost-effective even if ongoing case ascertainment reached theoretical maximum levels.Interpretation These findings support implementation of universal cholesterol screening followed by diagnostic genetic testing and RCT for FH, under a UK conventional willingness-to-pay threshold.
Funding None
Research in contextEvidence before this study In the UK, fewer than 15% of those with familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) have been diagnosed. Cascade testing of relatives has been recommended in the UK for several years, and has been shown to be feasible, acceptable and cost-effective, but requires a supply of index cases. Index cases could potentially be supplied by universal screening, which has recently been shown to be feasible at age 1-2 years.
Added value of this studyThis study suggests that universal screening of the UK population at 1-2 years would be cost-effective. Of several screening alternatives modelled, cholesterol screening followed by diagnostic genetic testing plus reverse cascade testing was found to be the most cost-effective. Although a successful screening programme would reduce its own cost-effectiveness by reducing undiagnosed disease prevalence and therefore pre-test probability of disease, our findings indicate that universal screening would remain co...