Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on tuberculosis in China, India, and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models

Abstract

BACKGROUND The End TB Strategy sets global goals of reducing TB incidence and mortality by 50% and 75% respectively by 2025. We assessed resource requirements and cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve these targets in China, India, and South Africa. METHODS We examined intervention scenarios developed in consultation with country stakeholders, which scaled-up existing interventions to high but feasible coverage by 2025. Nine independent TB modelling groups collaborated to estimate policy outcomes, and we costed each scenario by synthesizing service utilization estimates, empirical cost data, and expert opinion on implementation strategies. We estimated health impact and resource implications for 2016–2035, including patient-incurred costs. To assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness, we compared scenarios to a base case representing continued current practice. FINDINGS Incremental TB service costs differed by scenario and country, and in some cases more than doubled current funding needs. In general, expanding TB services substantially reduced patient-incurred costs; and in India and China this produced net cost-savings for most interventions under a societal perspective. In all countries, expanding TB care access produced substantial health gains. Compared to current practice, most intervention approaches appeared highly cost-effective when compared to conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds. INTERPRETATION Expanding TB services appears cost-effective for high-burden countries and could generate substantial health and economic benefits for patients, though funding needs challenge affordability. Further work is required to determine the optimal intervention mix for each country.

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