OBJECTIVE To analyze the progress towards the accomplishment of the expected goal in
the middle of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020 in Mexico and
its states.METHODS This is a secondary analysis of road traffic deaths in Mexico between 1999
and 2015. We projected the trend for the period 2011–2020 using a time
series analysis (autoregressive integrated moving average models). We used
the value of the Aikaike Information Criterion to determine the best model
for the national level and its 32 states.RESULTS Mexico is progressing, approaching the proposed goal, which translates into
10,856 potentially prevented deaths in the five-year period from 2011 to
2015. This was due to a decrease in the number of deaths of motor vehicle
occupants, as the deaths of pedestrians and motorcyclists were higher than
expected. At least one third of the states had values below their goal;
although the mortality rate remains unacceptably high in five of them. We
identified four states with more deaths than those originally projected and
other states with an increasing trend; thus, both cases need to strengthen
their prevention actions.CONCLUSIONS The analysis can allow us to see the progress of the country in the middle
of the Decade of Action, as well as identify the challenges in the
prevention of traffic injuries in vulnerable users. It contributes with
elements that provide a basis for a need to rethink both the national goal
and the goal of the different states.