Cost–benefit analysis of adaptation to storm surge due to climate change in Osaka Bay, Japan

Ha, Si; Tatano, Hirokazu; Mori, Nobuhito; Fujimi, Toshio; Jiang, Xuewen

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03282-y

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…The model simulates storm surge heights and maximum wind wave heights using the nonlinear shallow water equation and spectral wave model SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore), respectively. Entering the simulated storm surge properties, we predict the inundation depth of each 30 m mesh area in Osaka Bay using an inundation simulation model based on the 2D shallow water equation (Ha et al., 2021; Liang, 2010).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Household Preferences for Coastal Flood Risk Mitigation Policies Under Ambiguity

Fujimi

Jiang

et al. 2022

Earth's Future

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Risk mitigation policies (like dike rising) are essential to address increasing coastal flood risks due to global warming. Furthermore, the optimal level of risk mitigation policy should be determined by public preferences for risk reduction. However, it is difficult to reveal public preferences for coastal flood risk reduction because projections of coastal flood risks inevitably involve uncertainty. This study aims to estimate household preference for coastal flood reduction under ambiguity and multiple projections of coastal flood risks. By coupling storm surge inundation simulations and stated preference experiments with decision models, we estimate the expected loss reduction, risk premium, and ambiguity premium for coastal flood risk mitigation policies. The study shows that ignoring the ambiguity premium causes significant undervaluation of coastal flood risk mitigation.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating Household Preferences for Coastal Flood Risk Mitigation Policies Under Ambiguity

Fujimi

Jiang

et al. 2022

Earth's Future

Self Cite

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“…CBA is often used to analyze CDMs, but rarely through a process of prioritization (Poloméet al, 2005;Boyer-Villemaire et al, 2016;Chow et al, 2017;Thi Oanh et al, 2020). CBA has been used more frequently to assess the cost of CDMs' maintenance, to compare the pros and cons, and the costs of scenarios with or without a CDM (Maia et al, 2015;Ha et al, 2021) or to evaluate a single given solution in monetary terms (Lima et al, 2020). There are two schools of thought regarding CBA and MCDA.…”

Section: Relevance Of Mcda As a Tool To Evaluate Cdmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multicriteria Decision Analysis to Assist in the Selection of Coastal Defence Measures: Involving Coastal Managers and Professionals in the Identification and Weighting of Criteria

2022

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Coastal socio-ecological systems are complex adaptive systems with nonlinear changing properties and multi-scale dynamics. They are influenced by unpredictable coastal hazards accentuated by the effects of climate change, and they can quickly be altered if critical thresholds are crossed. Additional pressures come from coastal activities and development, both of which attracting stakeholders with different perspectives and interests. While coastal defence measures (CDMs) have been implemented to mitigate coastal hazards for centuries, a lack of knowledge and tools available to make informed decision has led to coastal managers favouring the choice of seawalls or rock armours with little consideration for socio-ecological systems features, and stakeholders’ priorities. Though it is not currently widely applied in coastal zone management, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a tool that can be useful to facilitate decision making. PROMETHEE, an outranking method, was chosen to support the multicriteria decision analysis for the evaluation of CDMs in the context of four study sites characterized by distinct environmental features. The aim was to determine the relevance and benefits of a MCDA by integrating coastal zone stakeholders in a participatory decision-making process in order to select CDMs that are better adapted to the whole socio-ecological system. First, in a series of five workshops, stakeholders were asked to identify and weigh criteria that were relevant to their local conditions. Second and third, CDMs were evaluated in relation to each criterion within the local context, then, hierarchized. Initial results show that vegetation came first in three of the four sites, while rock armour ranked first in the fourth site. A post-evaluation of the participatory process indicated that the weighting phase is an effective way to integrate local knowledge into the decision-making process, but the identification of criteria could be streamlined by the presentation of a predefined list from which participants could make a selection. This would ensure criteria that are standardized, and in a format that is compatible with the MCDA. Coupled with a participatory process MCDA proved to be a flexible methodology that can synthetize multiple aspects of the problem, and contribute in a meaningful way to the coastal engineering and management decision-making process.

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“…SLR will elevate estuarine base water levels, potentially 2 of 22 causing beach erosion and shoreline recession, thereby jeopardizing basic coastal hydraulic facilities [14,15]. Under the influence of storm surges, the rising sea level has contributed to an increased frequency of extreme tidal levels worldwide, exacerbating the risk of coastal inundation [16]. However, storm surge heights have not exhibited a consistent trend on a global scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal Shift of Storm Surges in the Yangtze Estuary, China

Yin,

Zhang,

Xiong

et al. 2024

JMSE

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This study explores storm floods in the Yangtze Estuary to investigate how extreme sea levels and storm surges change in the context of global warming. Previous studies focused on the long-term variations in amplitude or frequency of storm surges, with limited research conducted on the timing of extreme storm surge events. Based on the methods of non-stationary extreme value theory, we explored the last 33-year tidal levels at Xuliujing Station and found that the annual extreme water level has exhibited a slight downward trend, which is directly attributed to the decrease in mean sea level resulting from reduced upstream river flow. The storm surge season of the Yangtze Estuary experienced a significant lag in the period 2005–2018, which is not restricted to the Yangtze Estuary but is rather a large-scale climate characteristic of a broad oceanic region. The reason for this shift is the sustained increase in the intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high in the last 15 years, leading to the appearance of low-pressure channels in the East China Sea in September and October and thus causing more typhoons to enter the East China Sea during the later period of the storm surge season.

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Cost–benefit analysis of adaptation to storm surge due to climate change in Osaka Bay, Japan

Cited by 8 publications

References 62 publications

Estimating Household Preferences for Coastal Flood Risk Mitigation Policies Under Ambiguity

Estimating Household Preferences for Coastal Flood Risk Mitigation Policies Under Ambiguity

Multicriteria Decision Analysis to Assist in the Selection of Coastal Defence Measures: Involving Coastal Managers and Professionals in the Identification and Weighting of Criteria

Seasonal Shift of Storm Surges in the Yangtze Estuary, China

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