Cost-Benefit Analysis for Single and Double Rice Cropping Systems under the Background of Global Warming

Abstract

Global warming might expand crop growth areas for the prevailing single and double rice cropping systems in Southern China. Based on historical weather and crop data from 1981 to 2015, we evaluated the economic benefit and environmental cost for single and double rice cropping systems (SRCS and DRCS) in areas that are sensitive to climate variability in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The five chosen indices were: net profit, agronomic nitrogen use efficiency (ANUE), water use efficiency (WUE), total amount, and global warming potential (GWP) of greenhouse gas (GHG). The goal of this study is to provide scientific evidence for local policymakers to use in selecting the most suitable rice cropping systems to maximize economic profits while adapting to climate change. The results showed that net profit was $171.4 per hectare higher for DRCS than for SRCS in the study region. In addition, output per unit nitrogen usage was $0.25 per kg N higher for DRCS than for SRCS. Net profit would increase if DRCS replaced SRCS, and the maximum amplitude of increase in net profit for this replacement occurred under the settings of 150 kg ha−1 nitrogen fertilizer level and continuous irrigation when the paddy water layer started to fade. On the other hand, annual variation in net profit for SRCS was consistently smaller than DRCS, regardless of changes in nitrogen fertilizer level and irrigation regime settings. SRCS showed better WUE than DRCS in both rainfed and irrigated situations, as well as lower seasonal CH4 and N2O emissions during the study period. Therefore, we conclude that SRCS is superior to DRCS for the sake of maximizing economic profit while maintaining sustainable agriculture in areas that are sensitive to climate variability in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.