Cost Analysis of Seed Conservation of Commercial Pine Species Vulnerable to Climate Change in Mexico

Abstract

Mexico is home to 40% of the pine species in the world. By the year 2050, 20% of the Mexican forests could be lost because of climate change and other human-related activities. In this paper, we determine the potential areas for seed collecting of four species of the genus Pinus and its ex situ economic value under different future Climate Change Scenarios (CCS). The species analyzed were Pinus oocarpa Schiede ex Schltdl, P. rudis Endl., P. culminícola Andresen et Beaman and P. leiophylla Schiede ex Schltdl. and Cham which together accounts for 19% of the timber production in Mexico. Potential areas of distribution of populations in habitats with Annual Mean Maximum Temperatures (AMMT) for seed collection were modelled through a Geographic Information System and climate database. The seed storage economic value was determined by using the Collection Cost Method. The AMMT of P. oocarpa, P. rudis, P. culminícola and P. leiophylla were 28 °C, 20 °C, 18.3 °C and 27.4 °C, respectively. The economic losses from shortages of these species due to CCS in 2050, were estimated of 88.5 million (USD) and 67.16 million (USD) with severe and conservative future CCS, respectively. The nominal investment rate would be 8.84% or more, for storing seeds of the four species and withstanding climate change. An ex situ seed bank is a medium and long-term investment; among its benefits are establishing a market price for the use and conservation of species in the face of possible adverse scenarios.

Cost Analysis of Collection and Ex Situ Conservation of Seeds of Important Native Tree Species of Mexico

“…Most of the species with the highest indicator belong to the Fabaceae family, which coincides with the information reported by Rodríguez-Arévalo et al [29], for the Tehuacan-Cucatlán NPA, and with studies of trees in Mexico by Villaseñor et al and Beech et al [1,46] about trees important to society.…”

“…It has a collection of 560 accessions and currently does not have an economic valuation in its operations [3,31]. For the costs of collecting and storing seeds, we consulted the work of Rodríguez-Zúñiga et al [29] and information from FESI-SB researchers. In order to compare the collection costs and their valuation form versus the FESI-SB collection costs of those seeds of tree species with the highest value according to the constructed index, we consulted the "technical forestry service providers" (Prestadores de Servicios Técnicos Forestales-PSTF, based on Spanish initials-who are dedicated to the sale of seeds) [32].…”

“…(2) Cost analysis of selected species with major indicator The biological collection (seeds) cost assessment proposed by Rodríguez-Zúñiga et al [29] was used in this study. This method consists of evaluating the environmental damage caused by anthropogenic activity, measuring the cost of promoting the increase in pollution levels and the changes due to its increment [23], as has been reported for mangroves [23,24].…”

“…Table 2 shows a summary of the costs of collecting tree species seeds in different regions of Mexico and sample treatment and storage according to the manual for seed management in germplasm banks, published by Rodríguez-Zúñiga et al [29] and Rao et al [29,36], respectively.…”

“…Other studies consider that the investment made in conserving phylogenetic resources is a relatively modest sum compared to the enormous benefits that could be generated (e.g., seeds of species with high productivity for feeding people or sustaining world agriculture and the food supply). Furthermore, assessing the costs of germplasm conservation is useful for developing countries, facilitating the appropriate allocation of financial resources and the calculation of economic benefits [14,18,[27][28][29][30]. The lack of economic assessment of the seeds in a bank can cause financial loss for recouping the investment or insurance payments, due to their loss during transportation to other locations or unexpected accidents during manipulation, storage, and management of accessions outside the SB.…”