Corrigendum to: Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial

Bernal, Jamie Lopez; Cummins, Steven; Gasparrini, Antonio

doi:10.1093/ije/dyaa118

Cited by 432 publications

(670 citation statements)

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“…Within this quality improvement project, an integral feature is that patient preference dictates the chosen care pathway. This, together with some literature indicating that uncertainty exists in power calculations for time series analysis [32,33], meant that a priori power calculation was not performed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A telephone assessment and advice service within an ED Physiotherapy clinic: A single-site quality improvement cohort study

Kelly

Higgins

Murphy

et al. 2021

Preprint

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BackgroundIn response to issues with timely access and high non-attendance rates for Emergency Department (ED) physiotherapy, a telephone assessment and advice service was evaluated as part of a quality improvement project. This telehealth option requires minimal resources, with the added benefit of allowing the healthcare professional streamline care. A primary aim was to investigate whether this service model can reduce wait times and non-attendance rates, compared to usual care. A secondary aim was to evaluate service user acceptability.MethodsThis was a single-site quality improvement cohort study that compares data on wait time to first physiotherapy contact, non-attendance rates and participant satisfaction between patients that opted for a service based on initial telephone assessment and advice, versus routine face-to-face appointments. 116 patients were referred for ED physiotherapy over the 3-month pilot at the ED and out-patient physiotherapy department, X, Ireland. 91 patients (78%) opted for the telephone assessment and advice service, with 40% (n=36) contacting the service. 25 patients (22%) opted for the face-to-face service. Data on wait time and non-attendance rates was gathered using the hospital data reporting system. Satisfaction data was collected on discharge using a satisfaction survey adapted from the General Practice Assessment Questionnaire. Independent-samples t-test or Mann Whitney U Test was utilised depending on the distribution of the data. For categorical data, Chi-Square tests were performed. A level of significance of p ≤ 0.05 was set for this study.ResultsThose that contacted the telephone assessment and advice service had a significantly reduced wait time (median 6 days; 3 – 8 days) compared to those that opted for usual care (median 35 days; 19 – 39 days) (p ≤ 0.05). There was no significant between-group differences for non-attendance rates or satisfaction.ConclusionA telephone assessment and advice service may be useful in minimising delays for advice for those referred to ED Physiotherapy for musculoskeleltal problems. This telehealth option appears to be broadly acceptable and since it can be introduced rapidly, it may be helpful in triaging referrals and minimising face-to-face consultations, in line with COVID-19 recommendations. However, a large scale randomised controlled trial is warranted to confirm these findings.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A telephone assessment and advice service within an ED Physiotherapy clinic: A single-site quality improvement cohort study

Kelly

Higgins

Murphy

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…To determine whether there was a measurable change in the underlying trend of the OOH antibiotic prescribing volume before and after the national COVID-19 response was imposed in England on 26 March 2020, we performed an interrupted time series analysis (ITSA). ITSA is a quasi-experimental research design commonly used for the evaluation of longitudinal effects of interventions or incidents that might affect population-level health outcomes [ 35 ]. ITSA is particularly useful for assessing outcomes before and after an intervention is introduced when it is not possible or ethical to conduct clinical trials [ 35 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…ITSA is a quasi-experimental research design commonly used for the evaluation of longitudinal effects of interventions or incidents that might affect population-level health outcomes [ 35 ]. ITSA is particularly useful for assessing outcomes before and after an intervention is introduced when it is not possible or ethical to conduct clinical trials [ 35 ]. In this study, we define the intervention as the combination of (a) the national lockdown limiting public movement, (b) the local reconfiguration of primary care provisions including walk-in centre closure or the referral of cases to respiratory hot hubs, and (c) the switch to telephone- and video-based consultations in place of face-to-face interactions.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Antibiotic Prescribing in Out-of-Hours Primary Care in England from January 2016 to June 2020 to Understand Behaviours during the First Wave of COVID-19

et al. 2021

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We describe the trend of antibiotic prescribing in out-of-hours (OOH) general practices (GP) before and during England’s first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analysed practice-level prescribing records between January 2016 to June 2020 to report the trends for the total prescribing volume, prescribing of broad-spectrum antibiotics and key agents included in the national Quality Premium. We performed a time-series analysis to detect measurable changes in the prescribing volume associated with COVID-19. Before COVID-19, the total prescribing volume and the percentage of broad-spectrum antibiotics continued to decrease in-hours (IH). The prescribing of broad-spectrum antibiotics was higher in OOH (OOH: 10.1%, IH: 8.7%), but a consistent decrease in the trimethoprim-to-nitrofurantoin ratio was observed OOH. The OOH antibiotic prescribing volume diverged from the historical trend in March 2020 and started to decrease by 5088 items per month. Broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing started to increase in OOH and IH. In OOH, co-amoxiclav and doxycycline peaked in March to May in 2020, which was out of sync with seasonality peaks (Winter) in previous years. While this increase might be explained by the implementation of the national guideline to use co-amoxiclav and doxycycline to manage pneumonia in the community during COVID-19, further investigation is required to see whether the observed reduction in OOH antibiotic prescribing persists and how this reduction might influence antimicrobial resistance and patient outcomes.

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“…In an interrupted time-series design, plotting the time-series helps “identify the underlying trend, seasonal patterns and outliers” (Bernal, Cummins, and Gasparrini 2017:351). The natural first comparisons are the weeks just before and after the Jude story, where we are more confident that the story caused any observed changes.…”

Section: Plotting Data: Did Calls Decline After the Jude Story?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Police Brutality Stories Reduce 911 Calls? Reassessing an Important Criminological Finding

Zoorob

2020

Am Sociol Rev

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This comment reassesses the prominent claim from Desmond, Papachristos, and Kirk (2016) (DPK) that 911 calls plummeted—and homicides surged—because of a police brutality story in Milwaukee (the Jude story). The results in DPK depend on a substantial outlier 47 weeks after the Jude story, the final week of data. Identical analyses without the outlier final week show that the Jude story had no statistically significant effect on either total 911 calls or violent crime 911 calls. Modeling choices that do not extrapolate from data many weeks after the Jude story—including an event study and “regression discontinuity in time”—also find no evidence that calls declined, a consistent result across predominantly black neighborhoods, predominantly white neighborhoods, and citywide. Finally, plotting the raw data demonstrates stable 911 calls in the weeks around the Jude story. Overall, the existing empirical evidence does not support the theory that publishing brutality stories decreases crime reporting and increases murders.

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Corrigendum to: Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial

Cited by 432 publications

References 0 publications

A telephone assessment and advice service within an ED Physiotherapy clinic: A single-site quality improvement cohort study

A telephone assessment and advice service within an ED Physiotherapy clinic: A single-site quality improvement cohort study

Trends in Antibiotic Prescribing in Out-of-Hours Primary Care in England from January 2016 to June 2020 to Understand Behaviours during the First Wave of COVID-19

Do Police Brutality Stories Reduce 911 Calls? Reassessing an Important Criminological Finding

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