Correlations, Risk and Crisis: From Physiology to Finance

Gorban, Alexander N.; Smirnova, Elena V.; Tyukina, Tatiana A.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1397677

Cited by 32 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Based on theoretical consideration, we showed that a critical destabilization and transition to a new attractor will be manifest in two changes in the correlation statistics (as explained and derived in S2 Appendix, B.1–B.3) of the ( n × m ) data matrix X (t) [31]:…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cell Fate Decision as High-Dimensional Critical State Transition

et al. 2016

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Cell fate choice and commitment of multipotent progenitor cells to a differentiated lineage requires broad changes of their gene expression profile. But how progenitor cells overcome the stability of their gene expression configuration (attractor) to exit the attractor in one direction remains elusive. Here we show that commitment of blood progenitor cells to the erythroid or myeloid lineage is preceded by the destabilization of their high-dimensional attractor state, such that differentiating cells undergo a critical state transition. Single-cell resolution analysis of gene expression in populations of differentiating cells affords a new quantitative index for predicting critical transitions in a high-dimensional state space based on decrease of correlation between cells and concomitant increase of correlation between genes as cells approach a tipping point. The detection of “rebellious cells” that enter the fate opposite to the one intended corroborates the model of preceding destabilization of a progenitor attractor. Thus, early warning signals associated with critical transitions can be detected in statistical ensembles of high-dimensional systems, offering a formal theory-based approach for analyzing single-cell molecular profiles that goes beyond current computational pattern recognition, does not require knowledge of specific pathways, and could be used to predict impending major shifts in development and disease.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cell Fate Decision as High-Dimensional Critical State Transition

et al. 2016

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“…This is a review of already published experimental work. More details are presented in an extended e-print [48] and in original works.…”

Section: Correlation and Risk In Physiologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Correlations, risk and crisis: From physiology to finance

Gorban

Smirnova

Tyukina

2010

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

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a b s t r a c tWe study the dynamics of correlation and variance in systems under the load of environmental factors. A universal effect in ensembles of similar systems under the load of similar factors is described: in crisis, typically, even before obvious symptoms of crisis appear, correlation increases, and, at the same time, variance (and volatility) increases too. This effect is supported by many experiments and observations of groups of humans, mice, trees, grassy plants, and on financial time series.A general approach to the explanation of the effect through dynamics of individual adaptation of similar non-interactive individuals to a similar system of external factors is developed. Qualitatively, this approach follows Selye's idea about adaptation energy.In many areas of practice, from physiology to economics, psychology, and engineering we have to analyze the behavior of groups of many similar systems, which are adapting to the same or similar environment. Groups of humans in hard living conditions (Far North city, polar expedition, or a hospital, for example), trees under the influence of anthropogenic air pollution, rats under poisoning, banks in financial crisis, enterprises in recession, and many other situations of that type provide us with plenty of important problems, problems of diagnostics and prediction.For many such situations, it was found that the correlations between individual systems are better indicators than the value of attributes. More specifically, in thousands of experiments it was shown that in crisis, typically, even before obvious symptoms of crisis appear, the correlations increase, and, at the same time, the variance (volatility) increases too (Fig. 1).On the other hand, situations with inverse behavior were predicted theoretically and found experimentally [1]. For some systems, it was demonstrated that after the crisis achieves its bottom, it can develop into two directions: recovering (both the correlations and the variance decrease) or fatal catastrophe (the correlations decrease, but the variance continues to increase) (Fig. 1). This makes the problem more intriguing.If we look only on the state but not on the history then the only difference between comfort and disadaptation in this scheme is the value of variance: in the disadaptation state the variance is larger and the correlations in both cases are low. Qualitatively, the typical behavior of an ensemble of similar systems, which are adapting to the same or similar environment looks as follows:• In a well-adapted state, the deviations of the systems' state from the average value have relatively low correlations; • Under increasing of the load of environmental factors some of the systems leave the low correlated comfort cloud and form a low-dimensional highly correlated group (an order parameter appears). With further increasing of the load more * Corresponding address: Centre for Mathematical Modelling,

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“…The di erences in the shape of the curves of the change in variance of c over time could be connected to an observation, made by Gorban and colleagues [20]. Speci cally, these authors have observed that in a number of social, ecological and economical systems, rapid increase in variance, when coupled with increase in correlation between di erent components in the system, could be indicative of an approaching system collapse.…”

Section: Overview Of Previous Workmentioning

confidence: 69%

Resource Consumption, Sustainability, and Cancer

2014

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Preserving a system's viability in the presence of diversity erosion is critical if the goal is to sustainably support biodiversity. Reduction in population heterogeneity, whether inter-or intraspecies, may increase population fragility, either decreasing its ability to adapt e ectively to environmental changes or facilitating the survival and success of ordinarily rare phenotypes. The latter may result in over-representation of individuals who may participate in resource utilization patterns that can lead to over-exploitation, exhaustion, and, ultimately, collapse of both the resource and the population that depends on it. Here, we aim to identify regimes that can signal whether a consumer-resource system is capable of supporting viable degrees of heterogeneity. The framework used here is an expansion of a previously introduced consumer-resource type system of a population of individuals classi ed by their resource consumption. Application of the Reduction Theorem to the system enables us to evaluate the health of the system through tracking both the mean value of the parameter of resource (over)consumption, and the population variance, as both change over time. The article concludes with a discussion that highlights applicability of the proposed system to investigation of systems that are a ected by particularly devastating overly-adapted populations, namely, cancerous cells. Potential intervention approaches for system management are discussed in the context of cancer therapies.

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Correlations, Risk and Crisis: From Physiology to Finance

Cited by 32 publications

References 32 publications

Cell Fate Decision as High-Dimensional Critical State Transition

Cell Fate Decision as High-Dimensional Critical State Transition

Correlations, risk and crisis: From physiology to finance

Resource Consumption, Sustainability, and Cancer

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