Correlation of the global spread of coronavirus disease-19 with atmospheric air temperature

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is an enveloped virus that may be sensitive to heat. We assessed whether the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) correlates with air temperature. We also studied whether additional climate, geographical, and population variables were correlated. The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and mortality rates reported in each country between 1st Jan and 31st Mar 2020 were compared with the country's three-month average atmospheric air temperature, precipitation and latitude. Spearman's correlation coefficient (rs) was used to identify significant correlations. Our analysis included a total of 748,555 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. The total number of patients with COVID-19 decreased with increasing atmospheric air temperature (rs = -0.54, 95%CI: [-0.64, -0.42]; P <0.001) and increased with an increasing latitude (rs =0.60, 95%CI: [0.48, 0.70]; P <0.001). Our findings justify further studies to examine the effect of air temperature on infectivity of SAR-CoV-2.

Is coronavirus disease (COVID-19) seasonal? A critical analysis of empirical and epidemiological studies at global and local scales

“…Pearson correlation analysis in another study revealed that average temperature negatively correlates with the attack rate, a similar concept as the CFR in terms of infectivity (r = -0.36, p = 0.02) ( Hassan et al, 2020 ). This result is consistent with that of a study that used Spearman correlation analysis ( Bezabih et al, 2020 ).…”

Does Temperature Affect COVID-19 Transmission?

“…The transmission rate of COVID-19 is expressed as the daily number of infections (11,25,28), or the total number of confirmed cases (7,9,12,16,23). In other studies, the number of cases accumulated over a period of time (18,20,29), average daily cumulative rate of confirmed cases (13), or cases per 100000 (27) represent COVID-19 transmission.…”

“…In some studies, the temperature is expressed as the average daily temperature (13,14,20,22,25,29), or the average temperature over a period of time (7,9,23). Others use the 14-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) of daily average temperature (28).…”

“…In such a way, regions that have low temperatures are more prone to infection than those with higher temperatures (9). The COVID-19 cases increased toward the Earth's poles with increasing latitude (7). Accordingly, coronavirus peaks occur in winter, taking the form of local epidemics that last a few weeks or months (10).…”

Data_Sheet_2.PDF

“…Coronaviruses are large, enveloped RNA viruses of both medical and veterinary importance (6). The envelope structures of SARS-CoV-2 are sensitive to physical and chemical conditions and can be destabilized or damaged by heat, ultraviolet (UV) light or extreme pH (7). The outermost structural protein of the SARS-CoV2 "Spike protein" showed active and inactive states at different temperatures (8).…”