Correlation of Dengue and Meteorological Factors in Bangladesh: A Public Health Concern

Abstract

Dengue virus (DENV) is an enveloped, single-stranded RNA virus, a member of the Flaviviridae family (which causes Dengue fever), and an arthropod-transmitted human viral infection. Bangladesh is well known for having some of Asia’s most vulnerable Dengue outbreaks, with climate change, its location, and it’s dense population serving as the main contributors. For speculation about DENV outbreak characteristics, it is crucial to determine how meteorological factors correlate with the number of cases. This study used five time series models to observe the trend and forecast Dengue cases. Current data-based research has also applied four statistical models to test the relationship between Dengue-positive cases and meteorological parameters. Datasets were used from NASA for meteorological parameters, and daily DENV cases were obtained from the Directorate General of Health Service (DGHS) open-access websites. During the study period, the mean of DENV cases was 882.26 ± 3993.18, ranging between a minimum of 0 to a maximum of 52,636 daily confirmed cases. The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient between climatic variables and Dengue incidence indicated that no substantial relationship exists between daily Dengue cases and wind speed, temperature, and surface pressure (Spearman’s rho; r = −0.007, p > 0.05; r = 0.085, p > 0.05; and r = −0.086, p > 0.05, respectively). Still, a significant relationship exists between daily Dengue cases and dew point, relative humidity, and rainfall (r = 0.158, p < 0.05; r = 0.175, p < 0.05; and r = 0.138, p < 0.05, respectively). Using the ARIMAX and GA models, the relationship for Dengue cases with wind speed is −666.50 [95% CI: −1711.86 to 378.86] and −953.05 [−2403.46 to 497.36], respectively. A similar negative relation between Dengue cases and wind speed was also determined in the GLM model (IRR = 0.98). Dew point and surface pressure also represented a negative correlation in both ARIMAX and GA models, respectively, but the GLM model showed a positive association. Additionally, temperature and relative humidity showed a positive correlation with Dengue cases (105.71 and 57.39, respectively, in the ARIMAX, 633.86, and 200.03 in the GA model). In contrast, both temperature and relative humidity showed negative relation with Dengue cases in the GLM model. In the Poisson regression model, windspeed has a substantial significant negative connection with Dengue cases in all seasons. Temperature and rainfall are significantly and positively associated with Dengue cases in all seasons. The association between meteorological factors and recent outbreak data is the first study where we are aware of the use of maximum time series models in Bangladesh. Taking comprehensive measures against DENV outbreaks in the future can be possible through these findings, which can help fellow researchers and policymakers.

Perubahan Iklim Terhadap Kasus DBD di Kabupaten Jayapura Tahun 2014-2021

“…23 Oleh karena itu, mereka memiliki peluang lebih besar untuk mengisap darah orang yang terinfeksi dan bertahan hidup untuk menularkan virus kepada orang lain. 24 Kelembaban relatif juga secara langsung mempengaruhi tingkat penguapan tempat berkembang biak vektor. Dalam penelitian studi ini, ditemukan bahwa kelembaban relatif memiliki hubungan positif dengan penularan demam berdarah dengue (DBD) di Kabupaten Jayapura.…”

“…Kelembaban juga memengaruhi kelangsungan hidup nyamuk dewasa dan frekuensi menggigit. 24 Kelembaban optimum untuk perkembangan nyamuk dan bertahan di 70-80%. 27 jika kelambaban kurang dari 60% maka umur nyamuk akan pendek dan tidak dapat menjadi vektor karena tidak cukup waktu untuk siklus virus dengue dari perut mencapai kelenjar saliva.…”

Climate change, urbanization and resurgence of dengue in Bangladesh

“…Bangladesh, where dengue was first reported in 1964, has consistently faced outbreaks, became dengue endemic. The most devastating outbreak occurred in 2019, and the repercussions persist, with each subsequent year witnessing the continuation of this alarming trend [ 2 ].…”

“…In recent years, the South Asia region, including Bangladesh, has been facing increasingly frequent and intense temperature fluctuations due to significant climate warming— which is likely to continue in the future. Coinciding with these environmental shifts, there is a notable surge in dengue cases in the country, attributed to the changing climate fostering the proliferation of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes [ 2 ].…”

“…Adherence to the WHO's Integrated Vector Management (IVM) system is crucial for effective vector control, involving regulation of breeding areas, environmental management, reduction of stagnant water zones, and the use of larvicides, fogging, fumigation, and proper waste and wastewater treatment. Proper knowledge is a fundamental need to prevent dengue [ 2 ]. Educational campaigns on dengue by both government and non-government organizations can play a vital role to enhance public awareness.…”