Correlation Between GNSS‐TEC and Eruption Magnitude Supports the Use of Ionospheric Sensing to Complement Volcanic Hazard Assessment

Abstract

Throughout human history, large volcanic eruptions have affected year-to-year variability of the Earth's climate and even triggered crop failures and famines (e.g., Luterbacher & Pfister, 2015; Occhipinti, 2011; Oppenheimer, 2015). With an increasing global population, volcanic eruptions pose an even more important threat to the wealth and safety of the world population and the development of modern society (Fekete, 2011). The eruption of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, on June 1991, produced an estimated 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide, injecting 20 km high plume into the atmosphere (Bluth et al., 1992) which caused a temporarily drop of global temperatures by about 0.5°C from 1991 to 1993. The consequent ash fallout and lahars killed 847 people and caused damages to crops, infrastructures, and personal properties for more than 374 million dollars. A recent example of the economic impact of volcanic activity is observed after the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull, that in 2010 caused the largest breakdown of European airspace since World War II, despite the moderate Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI, Newhall & Self, 1982) of 4 (S. Jenkins, 2010; S. F. Jenkins et al., 2015). Part of the resulting losses were attributed to the overly conservative plan of action that the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) was forced to adopt due to the lack of real-time measurements of the distribution of ash (Lechner et al., 2017). The timing and accuracy of volcanic risk estimation has greatly improved since then; traditional monitoring techniques have evolved and been complemented with new methods. A significant goal is to provide timely and reliable information to support the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs). This allows coordination of an appropriately scaled response by relevant organizations to reduce damages and losses and mitigate the consequent economic impact.

The 15 January 2022 Hunga Tonga Eruption History as Inferred From Ionospheric Observations

“…It is known that volcanic eruptions and explosions generate acoustic and gravity waves that reach the ionosphere and generate so‐called co‐volcanic ionospheric disturbances (CVIDs; e.g., Astafyeva, 2019; Meng et al., 2019). The ionospheric disturbances are usually registered about 10–45 min after the eruption onset and are observed directly above the volcano to as far away as 800–1,000 km (Dautermann et al., 2009; Heki, 2006; Manta et al., 2021; Nakashima et al., 2016; Shults et al., 2016). CVID often represent quasi‐periodic variations of ionospheric electron density or of total electron content (TEC) with periods of 12–30 min (e.g., Dautermann et al., 2009; Shults et al., 2016).…”

Rapid Characterization of Large Volcanic Eruptions: Measuring the Impulse of the Hunga Tonga Ha’apai Explosion From Teleseismic Waves

“…The latter are particularly energetic because of the strong coupling of volcanic explosions with the atmosphere and, therefore, have been used to model volcanic explosion source process (e.g., Haney et al., 2018; Matoza et al., 2011) and to estimate eruptive volumes (e.g., Fee et al., 2017). Acoustic coupling with the ionosphere also can be used for volcano monitoring (e.g., Manta et al., 2021). One of the main difficulties with the infrasound monitoring of the eruptions is the need to correct non‐stationary propagation effects that are strongly dependent on atmospheric winds (e.g., Le Pichon et al., 2005).…”

Tsunami detection by GPS-derived ionospheric total electron content

“…The ionosphere grows and shrinks depending on the energy it absorbs from the top sources (e.g., the sun, interplanetary medium, magnetosphere) and the bottom sources (e.g., mesosphere, stratosphere, troposphere, lithosphere). The lithospheric disturbances are predominantly caused by natural sources (e.g., earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, cryospheric changes) 36 – 40 or human activity (e.g., nuclear explosions) 41 . The ionosphere is also highly influenced by large-scale tropospheric weather systems 35 , 42 , 43 , geomagnetic, auroral activity 43 – 45 , earthquakes 3 – 5 , 36 and Solar eclipse 46 .…”