Correlates of extinction risk in Australian squamate reptiles

Senior, Anna F.; Böhm, Monika; Johnstone, Christopher P.; McGee, Matthew D.; Meiri, Shai; Chapple, David G.; Tingley, Reid; Byrne, Margaret M.

doi:10.1111/jbi.14140

Cited by 13 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…These assessment gaps [ 9 , 10 ] led to the use of several automated methods to provisionally assess species [ 11 , 12 ]. These methods employ algorithms including phylogenetic regression models [ 13 – 15 ], structural equation models [ 16 ], random forests [ 17 , 18 ], deep learning [ 19 , 20 ], Bayesian networks [ 21 , 22 ], and even linguistic analysis of Wikipedia pages [ 23 ]. Most previous attempts (e.g., [ 13 , 17 , 18 ]) employed a binary classification of threatened (categories CR, EN, and VU) versus nonthreatened (NT and LC).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Automated assessment reveals that the extinction risk of reptiles is widely underestimated across space and phylogeny

et al. 2022

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The Red List of Threatened Species, published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), is a crucial tool for conservation decision-making. However, despite substantial effort, numerous species remain unassessed or have insufficient data available to be assigned a Red List extinction risk category. Moreover, the Red Listing process is subject to various sources of uncertainty and bias. The development of robust automated assessment methods could serve as an efficient and highly useful tool to accelerate the assessment process and offer provisional assessments. Here, we aimed to (1) present a machine learning–based automated extinction risk assessment method that can be used on less known species; (2) offer provisional assessments for all reptiles—the only major tetrapod group without a comprehensive Red List assessment; and (3) evaluate potential effects of human decision biases on the outcome of assessments. We use the method presented here to assess 4,369 reptile species that are currently unassessed or classified as Data Deficient by the IUCN. The models used in our predictions were 90% accurate in classifying species as threatened/nonthreatened, and 84% accurate in predicting specific extinction risk categories. Unassessed and Data Deficient reptiles were considerably more likely to be threatened than assessed species, adding to mounting evidence that these species warrant more conservation attention. The overall proportion of threatened species greatly increased when we included our provisional assessments. Assessor identities strongly affected prediction outcomes, suggesting that assessor effects need to be carefully considered in extinction risk assessments. Regions and taxa we identified as likely to be more threatened should be given increased attention in new assessments and conservation planning. Lastly, the method we present here can be easily implemented to help bridge the assessment gap for other less known taxa.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Automated assessment reveals that the extinction risk of reptiles is widely underestimated across space and phylogeny

et al. 2022

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“…However, when we excluded range size as a predictor, the R 2 values of all models decreased substantially (Böhm, Williams, et al, 2016). The finding partly reflects the Red List assessment process and also emphasizes that range‐restricted species are generally at a higher risk (Senior et al, 2021). In addition to range size, previous studies suggested that elevational range and population status could be influential to extinction risk and might help to explain variation in extinction risk among small‐ranged species (Meiri & Chapple, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 78%

“…Moreover, changes in climate (30–60° N/S) can interact with anthropogenic processes, such as habitat loss (e.g., Phrynocephalus golubewii ) and human collecting (e.g., Scincella huanrenensis ), in threatening the extinction of species with small ranges (Whitton et al, 2012). For instance, in Australasia, the positive influence of seasonal precipitation on the threat status of native species is related to enhanced predation and severe modification of habitats in the wetter region (Senior et al, 2021; Tingley et al, 2013). In contrast, we found negative effects of seasonality on the extinction risk of lizards in the Palaearctic and Nearctic, which were also identified by Whitton et al (2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We chose five traits with >80% coverage of species (activity time, insular endemism, number of limbs, microhabitat and snout–vent length) that are known to influence the extinction risk of reptiles (Supporting Information Table S1), as follows. First, diurnal and cathemeral species have activity patterns that coincide highly with human activities (Senior et al, 2021; Zhong et al, 2022). Therefore, we quantified the activity time of lizards as nocturnal (0), diurnal (1) or cathemeral (2; both day and night).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Range restriction, climate variability and human‐related risks imperil lizards world‐wide

Chen

Holyoak

et al. 2023

Global Ecol Biogeogr

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Aims Identifying major reasons for species imperilment is a necessary step for conservation, but the degree to which we can generalize is hard for species‐rich yet less‐studied taxa, such as lizards. Here, we aim to bridge the gap by providing comprehensive analyses of the correlates and processes of species extinction and threats for global lizards. Location Global. Time period Current. Major taxa studied Lizards. Methods We compiled a dataset comprising extinction risk status, six intrinsic traits and seven extrinsic factors for 5256 lizard species. We carried out binomial distribution tests for 43 families and seven realms to check the non‐randomness in species extinction risk and used phylogenetic linear regressions to identify the key factors that relate to the extinction proneness of lizards and species subgroups. Based on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) threat assessment, we identified major threats for global lizards and for major families and regions. Results We found strong evidence of taxonomic and geographical non‐randomness in the extinction risk of lizards. Geographical range size, human footprint and density, insular endemism, temperature and precipitation seasonality, and body size were key predictors of extinction risk, and the first three factors were also important across families and realms. Moreover, newly described species were more likely to have a restricted range size and a higher extinction risk. Globally, the most detrimental threat was habitat destruction, while overexploitation, species invasion and climate change varied widely in importance among species groups. Main conclusions Overall, we highlight the detrimental influences of range restriction, climate variability and anthropogenic threats to species persistence. We suggest that lizards are potentially at high risk of extinction owing to widespread human disturbance and that species with extinction‐prone traits require conservation prioritization. Moreover, lizards of different families and regions require different management strategies because of variation in extinction‐risk correlates and threats.

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“…In China, the distribution of biodiversity loss is driven primarily by climate and anthropogenic sources ( Lu et al 2020 ). Similarly, in Australia extinction risk in reptiles is related to anthropogenic pressures and proximity to human populations as well as climatic variables ( Senior et al 2021 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors related to species richness, endemism, and conservation status of the herpetofauna (Amphibia and Reptilia) of Mexican states

Smith

Lemos‐Espinal

2022

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Mexico is a megadiverse country with high endemicity in its herpetofauna. We examine how species richness, proportion of state and country endemic species, and proportion of species in a category of conservation concern using listings in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List and the Secretaría del Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (SEMARNAT) in 27 of 32 Mexican states are related to environmental and human demographic and socioeconomic variables. Amphibian and reptile species richness were positively related to latitude range and number of physiographic regions and negatively related to latitude. The proportion of state endemic amphibian species in a state was negatively related to latitude whereas no variables influenced the proportion in reptiles. The proportion of country endemics in a state was positively related to human population density and the number of physiographic regions and negatively related to per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and latitude range for amphibians; it was positively related to human population density and elevation range and negatively related to latitude range for reptiles. The proportion of amphibian species in an IUCN category of concern in a state was positively related to human population density and negatively related to latitude; for reptiles, it was negatively related to human population density. The proportion of SEMARNAT-listed species in a state was positively related to human population density for both amphibians and reptiles and negatively related to latitude range for amphibians. Our analyses found that larger macroecological patterns (e.g., latitudinal species gradient, heterogeneity-richness relationships) and human population density play important roles in determining the richness and conservation status of Mexican amphibians and reptiles.

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Correlates of extinction risk in Australian squamate reptiles

Cited by 13 publications

References 54 publications

Automated assessment reveals that the extinction risk of reptiles is widely underestimated across space and phylogeny

Automated assessment reveals that the extinction risk of reptiles is widely underestimated across space and phylogeny

Range restriction, climate variability and human‐related risks imperil lizards world‐wide

Factors related to species richness, endemism, and conservation status of the herpetofauna (Amphibia and Reptilia) of Mexican states

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Correlates of extinction risk in Australian squamate reptiles

Cited by 13 publications

References 54 publications

Automated assessment reveals that the extinction risk of reptiles is widely underestimated across space and phylogeny

Automated assessment reveals that the extinction risk of reptiles is widely underestimated across space and phylogeny

Range restriction, climate variability and human‐related risks imperil lizards world‐wide

﻿Factors related to species richness, endemism, and conservation status of the herpetofauna (Amphibia and Reptilia) of Mexican states

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Product

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Factors related to species richness, endemism, and conservation status of the herpetofauna (Amphibia and Reptilia) of Mexican states