Correcting reported aids incidence: A statistical approach

Heisterkamp, S. H.; Jager, J. C.; Ruitenberg, E. J.; Druten, J.A.M. van; Downs, Angela M.

doi:10.1002/sim.4780080807

Cited by 50 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Although the absolute numbers are somewhat different, the overall picture is consistent. In both Figures 1 and 2 the final twelve quarters have been adjusted by the method of Heisterkamp et al (1989).…”

Section: Haart and The Hiv Epidemicmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model‐based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: the consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy

Dangerfield

Fang

Roberts

2001

System Dynamics Review

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A system dynamics model of HIV/AIDS epidemiology is employed to simulate the effects of triple combination antiretroviral therapy in the treatment of HIV/AIDS. The epidemic data on homosexual men in the UK (1981‐‐1998) have been used to fit the baseline model. The new combination therapies, which supplanted antiviral mono and dual therapy in 1996, are proving to be the most effective prophylaxis yet for halting viral replication in vivo, but many uncertainties still surround their use. A range of model‐generated scenarios are created as a means of considering these uncertainties. Possible futures for the HIV/AIDS epidemic are constructed. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Section: Haart and The Hiv Epidemicmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model‐based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: the consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy

Dangerfield

Fang

Roberts

2001

System Dynamics Review

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“…There are a variety of graphical and statistical methods for estimating the lag distributions that may be more reliable (e.g. : 11,16). However, for the present purpose, the parametric form chosen here should capture the broad shape, and be acceptable to produce predictions.…”

Section: Results Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The use of aids surveillance data for short-term prediction of aids cases in Madrid, Spain

Medley

Zunzunegui²,

Bueno

et al. 1991

Eur J Epidemiol

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The paper presents a preliminary attempt to predict the numbers of AIDS cases in the Community of Madrid (CAM) up to 1992. Using AIDS case surveillance data gathered by CAM, and a statistical procedure that includes a distribution for reporting delays, the numbers of new diagnoses, reports, AIDS deaths and numbers of patients alive is predicted. Approximate confidence limits for the numbers of new diagnoses are given. We emphasise that these predictions are tentative given the nature of the reporting delays, and discuss the use of such predictions and the requirements for their improvement.

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“…Adjustments for reporting delay of cases was calculated using the maximum likelihood estimate of the Poisson distribution as described by Heisterkamp et al [6].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

AIDS cases in adolescents and young adults in Italy: Inferences from descriptive epidemiology

et al. 1991

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To assess the magnitude of the AIDS epidemic in the Italian adolescent (13-19 years) and young adult (20-24 years) age groups, data on AIDS cases notified to the AIDS Operational Centre as of 31 March 1990 were used. Of the 6068 reported AIDS cases, 0.7% occurred among adolescents and 15.7% among young adults. Among adolescents most cases were haemophiliacs (45.4%), while among young adults, drug use was the most frequently reported mode of transmission (87.5%). Females were more likely than males to contract the disease through the heterosexual contact in both the adolescent (20.0% vs 0%) and in young adult (15.1% vs 0.7%) age groups. Among young adults a geographical trend was present with a decrease in case rates from north to south, while for adolescents the rates were higher in northern and southern than in central Italy. If the incidence of AIDS is to be reduced in Italy, further efforts should be made to target the adolescent age group, since many of the young adult cases are likely to have resulted from HIV infection during adolescence.

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Correcting reported aids incidence: A statistical approach

Cited by 50 publications

References 7 publications

Model‐based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: the consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy

Model‐based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: the consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy

The use of aids surveillance data for short-term prediction of aids cases in Madrid, Spain

AIDS cases in adolescents and young adults in Italy: Inferences from descriptive epidemiology

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