Coronavirus seasonality, respiratory infections and weather

Abstract

Background The survival of coronaviruses are influenced by weather conditions and seasonal coronaviruses are more common in winter months. We examine the seasonality of respiratory infections in England and Wales and the associations between weather parameters and seasonal coronavirus cases. Methods Respiratory virus disease data for England and Wales between 1989 and 2019 was extracted from the Second-Generation Surveillance System (SGSS) database used for routine surveillance. Seasonal coronaviruses from 2012 to 2019 were compared to daily average weather parameters for the period before the patient’s specimen date with a range of lag periods. Results The seasonal distribution of 985,524 viral infections in England and Wales (1989–2019) showed coronavirus infections had a similar seasonal distribution to influenza A and bocavirus, with a winter peak between weeks 2 to 8. Ninety percent of infections occurred where the daily mean ambient temperatures were below 10 °C; where daily average global radiation exceeded 500 kJ/m2/h; where sunshine was less than 5 h per day; or where relative humidity was above 80%. Coronavirus infections were significantly more common where daily average global radiation was under 300 kJ/m2/h (OR 4.3; CI 3.9–4.6; p < 0.001); where average relative humidity was over 84% (OR 1.9; CI 3.9–4.6; p < 0.001); where average air temperature was below 10 °C (OR 6.7; CI 6.1–7.3; p < 0.001) or where sunshine was below 4 h (OR 2.4; CI 2.2–2.6; p < 0.001) when compared to the distribution of weather values for the same time period. Seasonal coronavirus infections in children under 3 years old were more frequent at the start of an annual epidemic than at the end, suggesting that the size of the susceptible child population may be important in the annual cycle. Conclusions The dynamics of seasonal coronaviruses reflect immunological, weather, social and travel drivers of infection. Evidence from studies on different coronaviruses suggest that low temperature and low radiation/sunlight favour survival. This implies a seasonal increase in SARS-CoV-2 may occur in the UK and countries with a similar climate as a result of an increase in the R0 associated with reduced temperatures and solar radiation. Increased measures to reduce transmission will need to be introduced in winter months for COVID-19.

The effects of air pollution, meteorological parameters, and climate change on COVID-19 comorbidity and health disparities: A systematic review

“…Studies conducted in China [ 49 , 91 ] and Indonesia [ 44 ] also found that high temperature and humidity were associated with lower rates of COVID-19. Meanwhile, an ongoing study of viral infections in England by Nichols et al [ 92 ] revealed that transmissibility of coronavirus depends on season, reaching a peak in winter (daily mean temperature below 10 °C, sunshine of less than 5 h/day and relative humidity over 84%), which implies a seasonal increase for COVID-19 infections in countries experiencing similar climate. A study conducted by Christophi et al [ 78 ] reported a 10 °C rise in ambient temperature resulted in 6% lower COVID-19 mortality rates at 30 days after the first reported death in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and the United States.…”

“…A positive relationship between long-term PM 2.5 exposure and COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions and deaths has been reported by Mehmood et al, [ 100 ] and Cole et al [ 32 ], in India, Pakistan, and Iraq. A strong association between PM 2.5 and PM 10 and COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFR) was found in 49 Chinese cities, including Wuhan, the epicenter of the COVID quake [ 92 ]. Yao et al [ 93 ] found that over 45 days, for every 10 μg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 and PM 10 concentrations, COVID-19 CFR increased by 0.24% and 0.26%, respectively.…”

Performance Evaluation of the Microfluidic Antigen LumiraDx SARS-CoV-2 and Flu A/B Test in Diagnosing COVID-19 and Influenza in Patients with Respiratory Symptoms

“…The LumiraDx SARS-CoV-2 and Flu A/B Test can potentially allow healthcare professionals to quickly and specifically identify the infection and decide on appropriate containment and treatment strategies. Multiplex testing for respiratory infections in point-of-care settings is essential as seasonal influenza and COVID-19 outbreaks may become the new normal [ 34 ].…”

Impact of Selected Meteorological Factors on COVID-19 Incidence in Southern Finland during 2020–2021

“…In temperate climate regions viral respiratory infections are known to have higher incidence during the winter, and earlier studies have shown that ambient temperature and humidity play a role in the seasonal nature of respiratory viral infection outbreaks [ 1 , 2 , 3 ]. Data from England and Wales show that coronaviruses predating SARS-CoV-2 had a similar seasonal distribution as influenza A and bocavirus during 2012–2019 [ 4 ].…”

“…The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) [ 5 ] divided the mechanisms of how meteorological factors can influence transmission into virus viability, host immunity and human behavior. Nichols et al [ 4 ] divided the drivers of seasonal infection dynamics into immunological, weather-related, social, and travel-related factors. Studies on virus survival rates have shown that prolonged virus viability and transmissibility are associated with cooler and drier low-humidity environments as these conditions favor rapid evaporation of water from exhaled aerosols [ 2 , 5 , 16 ].…”