The D:A:D (Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs) Study, a prospective observational study on a cohort of 23 468 patients with HIV infection, indicated that the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI) increased by 26% per year of exposure to combination antiretroviral treatment (CART). However, it remains unclear whether the observed increase in the rate of MI in this population can be attributed to changes in conventional cardiovascular risk factors.
ObjectiveTo compare the number of MIs observed among participants in the D:A:D Study with the number predicted by assuming that conventional cardiovascular risk equations apply to patients with HIV infection.
MethodsThe Framingham equation, a conventional cardiovascular risk algorithm, was applied to individual patient data in the D:A:D Study to predict rates of MI by duration of CART. A series of sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the effect of model and data assumptions. Predictions were extrapolated to provide 10-year risk estimates, and various scenarios were modelled to assess the expected effect of different interventions.
ResultsIn patients receiving CART, the observed numbers of MIs during D:A:D follow up were similar to or somewhat higher than predicted numbers: 9 observed vs 5.5 events predicted, 14 vs 9.8, 22 vs 14.9, 31 vs 23.2 and 47 vs 37.0 foro1 year, 1-2 years, 2-3 years, 3-4 years and 44 years CART exposure, respectively. In patients who had not received CART, the observed number of MIs was fewer than predicted (3 observed vs 7.6 predicted). Nine per cent of the study population have a predicted 10-year risk of MI above 10%, a level usually associated with initiation of intervention on risk factors.
ConclusionsA consistent feature of all analyses was that observed and predicted rates of MI increased in a parallel fashion with increased CART duration, suggesting that the observed increase in risk of MI may at least in part be explained by CART-induced changes in conventional risk factors. These , to predict the rate of MI that would have been expected during the D:A:D Study follow up based on patients' risk factors for CVD and to compare this with the observed rate. This would allow an assessment of whether the overall cardiovascular risk in HIV-infected individuals in the D:A:D Study is similar to that among uninfected patients with similar risk profiles. In addition, this analysis would also help to determine whether the observed increased risk of MI with duration of CART can be explained by changes in conventional cardiovascular risk factors that occur over time. We hypothesized that, if the increased risk was mediated through such risk factors, then it would be expected that the predicted rates of MI would parallel the increased rates observed with increasing duration of CART during follow up, both overall and according to age and gender [15][16][17].A basic principle of prevention is that the intensity of risk-reduction measures should be adjusted to a person's absolute risk. Various preventive guidelines have been de...