2018
DOI: 10.1051/swsc/2018007
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Coronal hole evolution from multi-viewpoint data as input for a STEREO solar wind speed persistence model

Abstract: -We present a concept study of a solar wind forecasting method for Earth, based on persistence modeling from STEREO in situ measurements combined with multi-viewpoint EUVobservational data. By comparing the fractional areas of coronal holes (CHs) extracted from EUV data of STEREO and SoHO/ SDO, we perform an uncertainty assessment derived from changes in the CHs and apply those changes to the predicted solar wind speed profile at 1 AU. We evaluate the method for the time period [2008][2009][2010][2011][2012], … Show more

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Cited by 26 publications
(24 citation statements)
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“…For example, if the continuous outflow in some funnels is disrupted and starts to weaken in a non-uniform or unsynchronized manner and at a higher rate than the increase in other funnels, we would expect a non-linear relation between CH area and solar wind outflow speed (which has been shown statistically, e.g. by Temmer et al 2018).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For example, if the continuous outflow in some funnels is disrupted and starts to weaken in a non-uniform or unsynchronized manner and at a higher rate than the increase in other funnels, we would expect a non-linear relation between CH area and solar wind outflow speed (which has been shown statistically, e.g. by Temmer et al 2018).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Reliably defining CH boundaries is not only relevant for studying coronal and photospheric properties and their evolution but is also of major scientific importance towards space weather research. Empirical relations between CH area and measured solar wind speed at 1 AU (e.g., Nolte et al, 1976;Vršnak, Temmer, and Veronig, 2007;Tokumaru et al, 2017;Hofmeister et al, 2018) are used for forecasting purposes (e.g., Rotter et al, 2012Rotter et al, , 2015Reiss et al, 2016;Temmer, Hinterreiter, and Reiss, 2018). Moreover, the distance to CH boundary is an important parameter for MHD models simulating the solar wind distribution in interplanetary space (e.g., ENLIL: Odstrčil and Pizzo 1999, EUHFORIA: Pomoell and Poedts 2018and CORHEL: Riley et al 2012.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Data assimilation (DA) is the mathematically rigorous process of Topical Issue -Space Weather research in the Digital Age and across the full data lifecycle combining models and observations, taking account of their individual uncertainties (Kalnay, 2002;Asch et al, 2016). This methodology has long been used in atmospheric and oceanic sciences (Sasaki, 1970;Ghil & Malanotte-Rizzoli, 1991;Rabier, 2005) and has more recently been adopted in relatively data-rich areas of space physics (Bust & Mitchell, 2008;Hickmann et al, 2015;Glauert et al, 2018;Temmer et al, 2018;Aseev & Shprits, 2019;Elvidge & Angling, 2019). In the heliosphere, we have recently demonstrated assimilation of in situ solar wind observations (Lang et al, 2017;Lang & Owens, 2019), though the same methods should be broadly applicable to other remote observing techniques in the future (e.g., Manoharan, 2012;Barnard et al, 2019).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%