Coral Reefs and People in a High-CO2 World: Where Can Science Make a Difference to People?

Abstract

Reefs and People at RiskIncreasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere put shallow, warm-water coral reef ecosystems, and the people who depend upon them at risk from two key global environmental stresses: 1) elevated sea surface temperature (that can cause coral bleaching and related mortality), and 2) ocean acidification. These global stressors: cannot be avoided by local management, compound local stressors, and hasten the loss of ecosystem services. Impacts to people will be most grave where a) human dependence on coral reef ecosystems is high, b) sea surface temperature reaches critical levels soonest, and c) ocean acidification levels are most severe. Where these elements align, swift action will be needed to protect people’s lives and livelihoods, but such action must be informed by data and science.An Indicator ApproachDesigning policies to offset potential harm to coral reef ecosystems and people requires a better understanding of where CO2-related global environmental stresses could cause the most severe impacts. Mapping indicators has been proposed as a way of combining natural and social science data to identify policy actions even when the needed science is relatively nascent. To identify where people are at risk and where more science is needed, we map indicators of biological, physical and social science factors to understand how human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats to corals expected in a high-CO2 world. Western Mexico, Micronesia, Indonesia and parts of Australia have high human dependence and will likely face severe combined threats. As a region, Southeast Asia is particularly at risk. Many of the countries most dependent upon coral reef ecosystems are places for which we have the least robust data on ocean acidification. These areas require new data and interdisciplinary scientific research to help coral reef-dependent human communities better prepare for a high CO2 world.

Risk‐sensitive planning for conserving coral reefs under rapid climate change

“…The balanced scenario represents the optimal portfolio presented in this paper. Colors of BCUs in the other panels have no significance and serve only to distinguish individual BCUs conservation that were not considered in this study because data were not available globally-such as ocean chemistry, ecological adaptive capacity of reefs (Anthony et al, 2015) or the human dependence on coral reef ecosystems (Pendleton et al, 2016)-could be incorporated into MPT analyses to inform conservation priorities at subglobal scales.…”

Reef Habitat Type and Spatial Extent as Interacting Controls on Platform-Scale Carbonate Budgets

“…These changes have had, and are continuing to have, profound impacts on many of the ecosystem goods and services that reefs provide to society (Pendleton et al, 2016). Of equally pressing concern however are the impacts that these ecological declines are now having on the processes of carbonate production and bioerosion on reefs (Perry et al, 2014a,b).…”

Planning for the future: Incorporating global and local data to prioritize coral reef conservation

“…Furthermore, our resilience table (Table ) can be easily modified to accommodate new data as they become available or as management goals change. For example, future analyses might add factors that provide resilience to ocean acidification, storms, or sea‐level rise (Pendleton et al, ). This work may also be seen as a starting point for managers to assign ranks based on manageable and unmanageable threats before incorporating additional socio‐economic priorities, such as reliance on fishing as a primary source of protein or income.…”

“…While the global scope of these data begs for a global examination of management strategies, such an application would likely reveal heterogeneity in the distribution of reef vulnerability to both climate change and local human activities and resulting inequity in the international distribution of conservation priorities (Pendleton et al, ; van Hooidonk et al, ). Therefore, we urge careful consideration of the consequences of applying this framework at a global scale.…”