Copula based drought frequency analysis considering the spatio-temporal variability in Southwest China

Xu, Kai; Yang, Dawen; Xu, Xiaowen; Lei, Huimin

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.05.030

Cited by 198 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…In addition to the mild droughts that occurred in large extended areas, the four provinces of Sichuan, Yunnan, Guangxi and Guizhou in SC suffered from severe droughts and extreme droughts. The area of severe droughts and extreme droughts area peaked in 2011, which was consistent with other study [42]. …”

Section: Decade Time Scale Variations Of the Drought Severity Distribsupporting

confidence: 92%

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Droughts in Southwest China from 1961 to 2012

Huang

Yang

et al. 2015

Sustainability

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Southwest China (SC) has suffered a series of super extreme droughts in the last decade. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of drought in SC from 1961 to 2012. Based on precipitation anomaly index (PAI) that was derived from 1 km gridded precipitation data, three time scales (month, year and decade) for the drought frequency (DF) and drought area were applied to estimate the spatio-temporal structure of droughts. A time-series analysis showed that winter droughts and spring droughts occurred frequently for almost half of the year from November to March. Summer droughts occasionally occurred in severe drought decades: the 1960s, 1980s and 2000s. During the period of observation, the percent of drought area in SC increased from the 1960s (<5%) to the 2000s (>25%). A total of 57% of the area was affected by drought in 2011, when the area experienced its most severe drought both in terms of area and severity. The spatial analysis, which benefitted from the gridded data, detailed that all of SC is at drought risk except for the central Sichuan Basin. The area at high risk for severe and extreme droughts was localized in the mountains of the junction of Sichuan and Yunnan. The temporal and OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2015, 7 13598 spatial variability can be prerequisites for drought resistance planning and drought risk management of SC.

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Section: Decade Time Scale Variations Of the Drought Severity Distribsupporting

confidence: 92%

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Droughts in Southwest China from 1961 to 2012

Huang

Yang

et al. 2015

Sustainability

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“…In hydrology research, Archimedean copula functions are widely used because the explicit functional forms, including the Clayton, Frank, and Gumbel-Hougaard copulas, are flexible and allow differences in tail behavior [17]. Three Copulas functions used in this study are shown in Table 1.…”

Section: The Archimedean Copula Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Copula function has been widely used in recent years to study the synchronous-asynchronous joint probabilities of hydrologic variables due to its ability to accurately predict nonlinear and asymmetric correlations and allow different marginal distributions [15][16][17]. Grimaldi and Serinaldi (2006) [18] used the asymmetric Copula function to investigate the correlation among peak, volume and duration of a flood event.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variations in the Runoff-Sediment Relationship of the Weihe River Basin Based on the Copula Function

Guo

Chang

Wang

et al. 2016

Water

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This study investigates the runoff-sediment relationship (RSR) of the Weihe River, a sandy waterway originating from the Loess Plateau, and considers the potential variations in RSR under an evolving environment. The double mass curve method was used to investigate RSR inflection points at six hydrologic stations located in the Weihe River basin (WRB) spanning the period from 1956 to 2010. Because of its ability to accurately define nonlinear and asymmetric correlations between variables, the Copula function provided the joint probability distributions and revealed the joint probabilities of annual runoff and sediment yield through different periods. The results indicated: (1) The sediment yield and runoff exhibit decreasing trends, which was principally related to human activity such as soil and water conservation measures, water projects and industrial and domestic water use, (2) the RSR inflection points principally occurred around 1983 at the Weijiabu, Xianyang, Huaxian and Zhuangtou stations, whereas they were non-significant at the Linjiacun and Zhangjiashan stations. Changes in RSR are attributed to the irregular effect of human activity reducing the runoff and sediment output; and (3) the joint probability distributions of annual runoff and sediment yield varied under an evolving environment and were characterized by spatial variability, which is more evident in the mainstream areas of the Weihe River than in the tributary regions.

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“…The scarcity of ground stations and short recording lengths motivated the following studies to use synthetic datasets to analyze the frequencies of drought events [10,11]. Since the spatial-temporal relationships among drought characteristics are complex, recent studies have diversified their efforts by analyzing the return periods of droughts using various S or A scenarios [12][13][14]. The copula approach [15] provides an ideal test bed in which to analyze multivariate probabilistic problems without making explicit assumptions about the marginal or joint distributions of the variables involved in the estimation problem.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Song and Singh [20] expanded this drought frequency analysis from bivariate to trivariate via a new method that constructs trivariate copulas to describe the joint distribution function of the temporal characteristics of meteorological drought events. Recently, Xu et al [14] used a trivariate drought identification method within the copula approach to calculate the joint probability and return period of different drought spatial-temporal characteristic pairs. Overall, these studies demonstrated the advantages of the copula approach on bivariate and trivariate modeling of drought characteristics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conditional Copula-Based Spatial–Temporal Drought Characteristics Analysis—A Case Study over Turkey

Afshar

Şorman

Yılmaz

2016

Water

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Abstract:In this study, commonly used copula functions belonging to Archimedean and Elliptical families are fitted to the univariate cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of the drought characteristics duration (LD), average severity (S), and average areal extent (A) of droughts obtained using standardized precipitation index (SPI) between 1960 and 2013 over Ankara, Turkey. Probabilistic modeling of drought characteristics with seven different fitted copula functions and their comparisons with independently estimated empirical joint distributions show normal copula links drought characteristics better than other copula functions. On average, droughts occur with an average LD of 6.9 months, S of 0.94, and A of 73%, while such a drought event happens on average once in every 6.65 years. Results also show a very strong and statistically significant relation between S and A, and drought return periods are more sensitive to the unconditioned drought characteristic, while return periods decrease by adding additional variables to the analysis (i.e., trivariate drought analysis compared to bivariate).

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Copula based drought frequency analysis considering the spatio-temporal variability in Southwest China

Cited by 198 publications

References 35 publications

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Droughts in Southwest China from 1961 to 2012

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Droughts in Southwest China from 1961 to 2012

Variations in the Runoff-Sediment Relationship of the Weihe River Basin Based on the Copula Function

Conditional Copula-Based Spatial–Temporal Drought Characteristics Analysis—A Case Study over Turkey

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