Coping with increasing tides: Evolving agglomeration dynamics and technological change under exacerbating hazards

Taberna, Alessandro; Filatova, Tatiana; Roventini, Andrea; Lamperti, Francesco

doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107588

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 134 publications

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“…(2) Deepen the understanding of system dynamics and subsystem interactions within the coastal tourism system [135]. (3) Jointly consider private and public climate change adaptation effects on coastal hazard impacts [86]. (4) Determine drivers of possible externalities and redistributed effects of climate adaptation decisions in coastal environments [10,111].…”

Section: Climate Change and Coastal Tourism Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is possible that retreat decisions have the potential for the farthest-reaching cascading effects on surrounding subsystems. With the ability to cause housing market sorting [84], climate gentrification [84,86], and large resettlements of individuals in areas whose existing industry and employment may not support them [81], there are a variety of uncertainties concerning the effects on surrounding businesses and the tourism industry. Gentrification along our coastlines may reduce both affordable housing and property rentals for tourists, increasing social vulnerability, lowering tourist influx, and lowering income and job opportunities at surrounding hotels and restaurants.…”

Section: Accommodation Protection and Retreat Within Soses Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A Review of Climate Adaptation Impacts and Strategies in Coastal Communities: From Agent-Based Modeling towards a System of Systems Approach

Lawyer,

An,

Goharian

2023

Water

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Global warming and climate variations are expected to alter hydrologic conditions and exacerbate flooding, primarily through increasingly frequent and intense storm events and sea-level rise. The interactions between coastlines and their inhabitants around the world are highly diverse, making them challenging to model due to the non-homogeneous, nonlinear, and complex nature of human decision-making. Agent-based modeling has proven valuable in various fields, enabling researchers to explore various social phenomena and emergent patterns under different institutional frameworks, including climate change scenarios and policy decisions, particularly at local scales. This approach is particularly useful in providing insights into possible outcomes and feedback resulting from the convergence of individual- and community-level adaptation decisions, and it has increasingly been used to model coastal systems. However, there are a limited number of studies that examine the effects of climate adaptation decisions on coastal tourism systems. This paper aims to address this gap by first providing an overview of the current state of agent-based modeling literature that explores coastal community adaptation responses to climate change. Subsequently, the paper argues for the application of these methods to simulate the effects of adaptation on coastal tourism dynamics. To better capture the interactions within subsystems and potential redistributed effects inherent in multi-scale and multi-stakeholder decision-making processes within these systems, we propose integrating agent-based modeling with a novel system of socio-environmental systems (SoSES) approach. This integration aims to assist city planners, policymakers, stakeholders, and attraction managers in effectively assessing adaptation options to safeguard their communities from the multifaceted impacts of climate change.

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Section: Climate Change and Coastal Tourism Interactionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Accommodation Protection and Retreat Within Soses Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Climate Adaptation Impacts and Strategies in Coastal Communities: From Agent-Based Modeling towards a System of Systems Approach

Lawyer,

An,

Goharian

2023

Water

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“…The CRAB is an evolutionary economic ABM designed to delve into the intricate interplay between agglomeration forces -those clustering people and assets along coastlines and delta rivers -and climate-induced shocks 22,23 . It features a regional economy exposed to flooding that encompasses four classes of a variable number of agents: households, capital-good firms, consumption-good firms, and consumption-service firms.…”

Section: Coastal Regional Economy With Consecutive Floods and Adaptationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We introduce a novel version of the Climate-economy Regional Agent-Based (CRAB) model 22,23 to account for indirect damages caused by floods. This model combines households and firms in a regional economy, where they interact through market institutions, migration, climate, and technological learning.…”

Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic implications of autonomous adaptation of firms and households in a resource-rich coastal city

Taberna,

Filatova,

Hochrainer-Stigler

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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Climate change intensifies the likelihood of extreme flood events worldwide, amplifying the potential for compound flooding. This evolving scenario represents an escalating risk, emphasizing the urgent need for comprehensive climate change adaptation strategies across society. Vital to effective response are models that evaluate damages, costs, and benefits of adaptation strategies, encompassing non-linearities and feedback between anthropogenic and natural systems. While flood risk modeling has progressed, limitations endure, including inadequate stakeholder representation and indirect risks such as business interruption and diminished tax revenues. To address these gaps, we propose an innovative version of the Climate-economy Regional Agent-Based model that integrates a dynamic, rapidly expanding agglomeration economy populated by interacting households and firms with extreme flood events. Through this approach, feedback loops and cascading effects generated by flood shocks are delineated within a socio-economic system of boundedly-rational agents. By leveraging extensive behavioral data, our model incorporates a risk layering strategy encompassing bottom-up and top-down adaptation, spanning individual risk reduction to insurance. Calibrated to resemble a research-rich coastal megacity in China, our model demonstrates how synergistic adaptation actions at all levels effectively combat the mounting climate threat. Crucially, the integration of localized risk management with top-down approaches offers explicit avenues to address both direct and indirect risks, providing significant insights for constructing climate-resilient societies.

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Uncertainty in boundedly rational household adaptation to environmental shocks

Taberna,

Filatova,

Hadjimichael

et al. 2023

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Despite the growing calls to integrate realistic human behavior in sustainability science models, the representative rational agent prevails. This is especially problematic for climate change adaptation that relies on actions at various scales: from governments to individuals. Empirical evidence on individual adaptation to climate-induced hazards reveals diverse behavioral and social factors affecting economic considerations. Yet, implications of replacing the rational optimizer by realistic human behavior in nature–society systems models are poorly understood. Using an innovative evolutionary economic agent-based model we explore different framings regarding household adaptation behavior to floods, leveraging on behavioral data from a household survey in Miami, USA. We find that a representative rational agent significantly overestimates household adaptation diffusion and underestimates damages compared to boundedly rational behavior revealed from our survey. This “adaptation deficit” exhibited by a population of empirically informed agents is explained primarily by diverse “soft” adaptation constraints—awareness, social influences—rather than heterogeneity in financial constraints. Besides initial inequality disproportionally impacting low/medium adaptive capacity households post-flood, our findings suggest that even under a nearly complete adaptation diffusion, adaptation benefits are uneven, with late or less-efficient actions locking households to a path of higher damages, further exacerbating inequalities. Our exploratory modeling reveals that behavioral assumptions shape the uncertainty of physical factors, like exposure and objective effectiveness of flood-proofing measures, traditionally considered crucial in risk assessments. This unique combination of methods facilitates the assessment of cumulative and distributional effects of boundedly rational behavior essential for designing tailored climate adaptation policies, and for equitable sustainability transitions in general.

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Coping with increasing tides: Evolving agglomeration dynamics and technological change under exacerbating hazards

Cited by 3 publications

References 134 publications

A Review of Climate Adaptation Impacts and Strategies in Coastal Communities: From Agent-Based Modeling towards a System of Systems Approach

A Review of Climate Adaptation Impacts and Strategies in Coastal Communities: From Agent-Based Modeling towards a System of Systems Approach

Economic implications of autonomous adaptation of firms and households in a resource-rich coastal city

Uncertainty in boundedly rational household adaptation to environmental shocks

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