Cooperative system analysis of the Ebola virus epidemic model

Kabli, Karima; moujaddid, Soumia El; Niri, Khadija; Tridane, Abdessamad

doi:10.1016/j.idm.2018.09.004

Cited by 8 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Additionally, research funding from these affected African countries has been restricted to identifying prior causes of new EVD, contact identification, contact tracing, and monitoring EVD spread at the expense of transmission of EVD from fruit bats during their migration periods [12,[24][25][26]. However, limited studies have been conducted on fruit bats migratory behavior and seasonality in the face of escalating environmental degradation and climatic variations [19][20][21].…”

Section: Research Conducted In the Republic Of Congo (Rc) And Gabon Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Currently, susceptible, infectible and recovery (SIR) model is used as a potential model to predict the complication of endemic and epidemic infectious diseases, and it was recently used to predict the EVD outbreaks in other studies [23,24]. The SIR model description, usefulness and resolution are highlighted by several studies [25][26][27].…”

Section: Research Conducted In the Republic Of Congo (Rc) And Gabon Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Transmission rate estimated considering different conditions [ 25,26] with the different data type [ 29]. We took into account the incubation period and contact rate (incubation α = 4.23 days and contact rate (σ = 0.128)) estimated from the data collected in Sierra Leona and Liberia in order to have an in-depth understanding of this transmission rate [ 23,24]. Therefore, the transmission rate was used as the prior parameter in the SIR model.…”

Section: Infection Probability Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Prediction of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) infestation trends across fruit bats migratory seasons

Namahoro¹,

Haijun²

2019

Preprint

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Background : The majority of the rural populace of West and Central Africa participate actively in bushmeat commodity trade. The peak of this trade usually occurs during the migration of massive flocks of fruit bats. Unfortunately, this commercial period happens to coincides with the most conducive time for the spread of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) which is transmitted by these fruit bats. We, therefore, conducted this study to predict EVD infestation trend among individuals who might be vulnerable and/or infected (hunters, vendors, and consumers of bushmeat) as a result of this seasonal bats migration. Methods: A secondary data collected in Ghana and semi-structured questionnaires were administered to international students from 7 countries (Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ghana, Liberia, Zambia, Gabon, Guinea, and Ivory-Coast) and responses collated were used in this study. Bivariate correlation, probabilistic transmission rate of EVD, and probabilistic model (P-SIR) were employed to predict susceptible and infected individuals. Results : In all affected countries, it was observed that; there was a yearly bats’ migration pattern. 80 % of all interviewees confirmed that hunting, trading and consuming of bats influenced the rapid spread of EVD. The bivariate correlation between fruit bats and people involved in the bushmeat commodity chain was significant (p < 0.05) and the probability of infected bats were equally significant across the sampled countries. The estimated probabilistic rate was between 0.0099 and 0.01120, while individuals susceptible to EVD were predicted to be approximately between 5 and 45 (hunters), 0-18 f(vendors), and 25-90 (consumers). Conclusion : The migratory season of fruit bats contributes to EVD transmission in the most affected countries. People should avoid bushmeat consumption or eradicate all activities leading to the interaction with fruit bats to reduce the spread of EVD (Ebola) especially during the migratory seasons. Policy-makers and government agencies should also put in mechanisms that will protect their citizens during the fruit bats season. Keywords : bushmeat commodity chain, Ebola, migration season, EVD, fruit bats

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Section: Research Conducted In the Republic Of Congo (Rc) And Gabon Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Research Conducted In the Republic Of Congo (Rc) And Gabon Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Infection Probability Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Prediction of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) infestation trends across fruit bats migratory seasons

Namahoro¹,

Haijun²

2019

Preprint

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“…Model epidemik SIR telah banyak dikembangkan oleh matematikawan, contohnya model epidemik SIR pada penyebaran penyakit [4,5], model epidemik SEIR-SEI pada penyebaran virus Zika [6], model epidemik SEIHR pada penyabran virus Ebola [7] dan model epidemik SLBQR pada penyebaran virus computer [8]. Model epidemik SIRA (Susceptible-Infected-Removed-Antidotal) adalah model yang digunakan untuk mengetahui dinamika penyebaran virus komputer dalam suatu jaringan internet dengan memperhatikan adanya subpopulasi Infected atau komputer yang terinfeksi virus [9].…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Pengembangan Model Epidemik Sira Untuk Penyebaran Virus Pada Jaringan Komputer

Pemungkas

Sutrisno

Sunarsih

2019

JFMA

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This paper is addressed to discuss the development of epidemic model of SIRA (Susceptible-Infected-Removed-Antidotal) for virus spread analysis purposes on a computer network. We have developed the existing model by adding a possibility of antidotal computer returned to susceptible computer. Based on the results, there are two virus-free equilibrium points and one endemic equilibrium point. These equilibrium points were analyzed for stability issues using basic reproduction number and Routh-Hurwitz Method.

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“…In the other hand, in [66], the authors did not take into account the infectivity potential of Ebola-deceased individuals. These later drawbacks can also be highlighted in the models with isolation proposed in [19,36,43,53,83]. In [51], the authors proposed an interesting model with isolation which takes into account the transmissibility of individuals with moderate symptoms, severe symptoms and Ebola-deceased.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of effective isolation, safe burial and vaccination optimal controls for an Ebola epidemic model

Ajo

Tsanou

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Since 1976 many outbreaks of Ebola virus disease have occurred in Africa, and up to now, no treatment is available. Thus, to fight against this illness, several control strategies have been adopted. Among these measures, isolation, safe burial and vaccination occupy a prominent place. In this paper therefore, we present a model which takes into account these three control strategies as well as the difference in immunological responses of infected by distinguishing individuals with moderate and severe symptoms. The sensitivity analysis of the control reproduction number suggests that the vaccination response works better than the two other control measures at the beginning of the disease, and there is no need to vaccinate people in order to overcome Ebola. The global asymptotic dynamic of the model with controls is completely achieved exhibiting a sharp threshold behavior. Consequently, the global stability of the endemic equilibrium when the control reproduction number is greater than one, calls for the implementation of the three responses optimally. Thus, we define, analyze and implement different optimal control problems which minimize the cost of controls and the number of infected individuals through vaccination, isolation and safe burial. The obtained results highlight that, in order to mitigate Ebola outbreaks, an optimal vaccination strategy has more impact than the combination of isolation and safe burial responses. Therefore, the broad recommendation is that: if for any disease outbreak, the vaccine can be available quickly, one should think of implementing large vaccination programs rather than any other control measures.

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Cooperative system analysis of the Ebola virus epidemic model

Cited by 8 publications

References 27 publications

Prediction of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) infestation trends across fruit bats migratory seasons

Prediction of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) infestation trends across fruit bats migratory seasons

Pengembangan Model Epidemik Sira Untuk Penyebaran Virus Pada Jaringan Komputer

Assessment of effective isolation, safe burial and vaccination optimal controls for an Ebola epidemic model

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