Conversion of Dual-Use Technology: A Differential Game Analysis under the Civil-Military Integration

Abstract

Civil-military integration enables the symmetry development of dual-use technologies in the defense and civilian areas. In this paper, we used stochastic differential game theory to build theoretical models of the dual-use technology conversion between a military firm and a civilian firm. The models include three directions of dual-use technology conversion, namely, spin-off, spin-in, and mix. In particular, we incorporate the dynamic development of dual-use technology into the research framework. Our results show that the order of the Pareto optimality results is mix, spin-in, spin-out, including the best effort, the highest revenue, and the most technology value-added. The results also indicate that: (1) Some random interference factors can affect the transfer efforts, such as the coefficient of technological innovation capability and cost coefficients. (2) The military subsidies factor is an inventive mechanism that can promote dual-use transfer from the civilian firm to the military. (3) The military enterprise only earns more than the civilian firm in spin-in. (4) The growth of models in the dual-use technology conversion process faces increased technology uncertainty.