Convergence or Decline on Europe's Southeastern Periphery? Agriculture, Population, and GNP in Bulgaria, 1892–1945

Abstract

The literature currently offers no consistent narrative about economic development on Europe's southeastern periphery prior to 1945. Did per capita GNP in the Balkans converge with the rest of Europe? We present new GNP estimates for Bulgaria for 1892–1911 and link these with a new degree of precision to the data available for the 1920s. Our data reveal stagnation in per capita GNP from 1879 to the 1930s. But within agriculture we find evidence for a new phase of intensification from the 1920s onwards. The preconditions for growth, sometimes attributed to Communism, were in place well before 1945.

Regional inequality in human capital formation in Europe, 1790–1880

“…In contrast, countries in Central and Eastern Europe grew at much higher rates, resulting in a pattern of overall convergence. Ivanov and Tooze (2007) are less optimistic for the case of the Balkans because their data suggest that GNP per capita stagnated in Bulgaria throughout the period. Similarly, Foreman-Peck and Lains (2000) argue that countries such as Serbia and Greece were not able to generate high growth rates.…”

Can Partible Inheritance Explain Land Fragmentation? The Case of Bulgaria

“…According to their rough estimates, population increased from 1.5 million to 3 million between 1825 and 1875. Ivanov and Tooze (2007) note that between 1892 and 1910, Bulgaria’s population expanded from 3.3 million to 4.3 million—an increase of 31 per cent in just 18 years and that the rate of growth reached its peak in 1926 at 2 per cent per annum.…”

Two essays on the land tenure institutions of Bulgaria: evolution, land fragmentation and land productivity

“…According to their rough estimates, between 1825 and 1875, the population increased from 1.5 million to 3 million. Ivanov and Tooze (2007) note that between 1892 and 1910, Bulgaria's population expanded from 3.3 million to 4.3 million -an increase of 31 percent in just 18 years and that the rate of growth reached its peak in 1926 at 2 percent per annum.…”

“…However, the above sources do not take into account the expansion in agricultural land during these years. The comprehensive study of Ivanov and Tooze (2007) It is difficult to derive implications about the degree of impact of population growth, if there was any, on land fragmentation in Bulgaria. Following the findings of Ivanov and Tooze (2007), until 1914, despite rapid population growth, there was no increase in land scarcity.…”

“…The comprehensive study of Ivanov and Tooze (2007) It is difficult to derive implications about the degree of impact of population growth, if there was any, on land fragmentation in Bulgaria. Following the findings of Ivanov and Tooze (2007), until 1914, despite rapid population growth, there was no increase in land scarcity. Therefore, the argument that the increase in fragmentation in the period 1897 to 1908 was mainly due to population growth is not justified.…”