232BARASCH E et al.
Circulation JournalOfficial Journal of the Japanese Circulation Society http://www. j-circ.or.jp he prevalence of aortic valve (AV) structural changes and calcification increases with age such that approximately 30% of individuals over the age of 65 years have AV sclerosis while 4% have overt aortic stenosis (AS). 1 In apparently healthy subjects 75-86 years old, the prevalence of moderate to severe AS increases from 2.5% at 75-76 years to 8.1% at 85-86 years. 2 The natural history of AS is well established: after the onset of angina pectoris, syncope or heart failure, annual mortality approaches 25% with an average survival of 2-3 years. 3 Because there is no effective medical therapy, AV replacement (AVR), whether performed by surgical or percutaneous approach, represents the only definitive therapy.Among patients who otherwise meet criteria for AVR, surgery is not performed in between 33% and 61%. 4,5 Because the mortality of these patients is approximately twice that of similar patients undergoing AVR, 6 and the main reasons for surgical ineligibility are comorbidities that significantly increase operative risk, 7 refining risk stratification of these patients is important. Objective reassessment of such patients may indicate appropriateness of surgery in up to one-quarter of them, 8 while transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has become increasingly available as a potential alternative to surgery. 9 A number of recent studies have described clinical and echocardiographic predictors of death and major cardiac adverse events in patients with severe AS but most have examined the post-surgical 10 or post-TAVI outcome. 11 Prior studies have enrolled patients with severe AS regardless of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). 12,13 In several, LVEF was strongly associated with outcome in both unoperated and operated patients with AS. 4,5, 14 We sought to identify echocardiographic, clinical and laboratory variables associated with all-cause mortality in medically treated patients with severe isolated AS and normal LVEF.